Demography

Abstract

Since the pivotal and highly contrasting treatises of Süßmilch (1741) and Malthus (1798), the history of demography has been characterized by a remarkable variety of theories and concepts which can be considered as answers and reactions to the divergent social and political developments in industrialized countries during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. At present the worldwide population development is characterized by a “global demographic divide” between strongly growing regions and an increasing number of countries whose population tends to stagnate and decrease. This development may lead to significant shifts of economic and political power. In the long run, however, and according to the projections of the UN based on the “model of demographic transition,” it is expected that the population growth of the “more” and “less developed” regions will converge and stagnate, leveling off at approximately 11 billion people at the beginning of the twenty-second century. Whereas in the past, securing the food supply for the growing world population was considered a major problem, it can be assumed that in the future climate change and the destruction of the natural environment will be the major challenges which the global population will be confronted with.