Abstract
The chapter describes information content, methodological features and national practices of business tendency surveys (BTS) in Russia. These surveys are conducted jointly by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and the Russian Federation State Statistic Services (Rosstat) and provide qualitative data on sectoral trends and short-term fluctuations over the last two decades.
The Russian BTS system covers a wide range of regions, sectors and economic activities that makes possible sectoral benchmarking. The BTS results have statistically significant compatibility with quantitative statistics and comply with international standards. These properties allow integration of the survey results in both national and international information infrastructures. Composite indicators of business confidence, business climate and economic sentiment provide early warning of changes in sectoral and overall economic activities in Russia.
The paper prepared within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and supported within the framework of a subsidy by the Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’.
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Notes
- 1.
Tacis—Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States.
- 2.
Invaluable support to developing the Russian BTS system was provided by the Statistics Directorate of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Ronny Nilsson personally; Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission; Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET); the Ifo Institute (Germany); and the Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques (OFCE, France).
- 3.
The federal districts are administrative forming, that include several regions of Russian Federation; in 2016 nine federal districts were established.
- 4.
Since 2017, a new classification version compatible with the NACE Rev. 2.0 is used.
- 5.
The weight of services is less than their share in the total GVA, because of the survey covers some kinds of services only.
References
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Appendix
Appendix
Questions included in business tendency surveys by Higher School of Economics and Rosstat (the harmonised questions are marked in bold)
Questions (monthly) | Level; 3-option scale | Tendency; 3-option scale | Expectation; 3-option scale |
|---|---|---|---|
Industrial survey (monthly) | |||
Overall order books | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Export order books | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Production | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Innovative production | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Firm’s total employment | Current month | Past month | Next 3 months |
Stock of finished products | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Stock of raw material | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Selling prices | – | Past month | Next 3 months |
Raw materials prices | – | Past month | Next 3 months |
Capacity utilisation | Current month; percentage of full capacity | – | – |
Provision of production capacity considering current order book and change in demand over the next 6 months | Current month | – | – |
Availability of internal financial resources | – | Past month | Next 3 months |
Availability of budgetary funds | – | Past month | Next 3 months |
Availability of credit and loan resources | – | Past month | Next 3 months |
Business situation | Current month | Past month | Next 3Â months |
Main factors currently limiting production: Insufficient demand on domestic market Insufficient demand on foreign market Competing imports High taxation level Shortage of equipment High percentage of commercial loan Financial constraints Shortage of labour force Inadequate legal and regulatory framework None | Current month | – | – |
Services survey (quarterly) | |||
Demand | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Number of contracts (clients) | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Volume of services | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Prices for services | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Investment | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Costs | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Profit | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Competitive position on the market | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Firm’s total employment | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Business situation | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Main factors currently limiting business: Insufficient demand Shortage of space and/or equipment High taxation level Financial constraints High cost of renting premises Unfair competition from other organisations in the market Shortage of labour force High percentage of commercial loan Inadequate legal and regulatory framework Corruption of authorities | Current quarter | – | – |
Construction survey (quarterly) | |||
Current capacity utilisation | Current quarter; percentage of full capacity | – | – |
How many months of production are provided by current overall order books | Current quarter; months | – | – |
How many months of production are provided by current financial resource | Current quarter; months | – | – |
Overall order books | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Production capacity considering the expected change in demand over the next 12 months | Current quarter | – | – |
Amount of construction work | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Firm’s total employment | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Competitive position | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Prices for construction materials | – | Past quarter; 5-option scale | Next quarter; 5-option scale |
Prices for construction work | – | Past quarter; 5-option scale | Next quarter; 5-option scale |
Profit | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Loss | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Availability of internal financial resources | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Availability of loan financial resources | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Investment | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Main factors currently limiting building activity: Insufficient demand Insolvency of customers High level of taxation High percentage of commercial loan Shortage of labour force High price for materials and products Shortage of building equipment High competition from other organisations Weather conditions None | Current quarter | – | – |
Business situation | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Trade survey (quarterly) | |||
Firm’s total employment | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Turnover | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Sales | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Orders book (demand) | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Volume of stock | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Assortment of goods | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Competitive position on the market | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Storage space | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Investment (only retail) | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Availability of internal financial resources | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Availability of credit resources (only wholesale) | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Profit | – | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Competitive position on the market | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Selling price | – | Past quarter: 5-option scale | Next quarter; 5-option scale |
Purchase price (only wholesale) | – | Past quarter: 5-option scale | Next quarter; 5-option scale |
Business situation | Current quarter | Past quarter | Next quarter |
Share of online sales | Percentage in turnover | – | – |
Main factors currently limiting business: Insufficient effective demand Financial constraints High percentage of commercial loans Difficulties in obtaining loans (only retail) High taxation level High cost of renting premises High transport costs Insufficient assortment of goods (only retail) Shortage of storage/shopping space Shortage of equipment (only retail) High (unfair) competition on the market Shortage of labour force (only wholesale) Lack of information support (only wholesale) Inadequate legal and regulatory framework (only wholesale) None | Current quarter | – | – |
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Lipkind, T., Kitrar, L., Ostapkovich, G. (2019). Russian Business Tendency Surveys by HSE and Rosstat. In: Smirnov, S., Ozyildirim, A., Picchetti, P. (eds) Business Cycles in BRICS. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_13
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