Conclusion: What Is the Nature of Small State Proliferation?

Abstract

Conventional wisdom has it that the more arms a state has; the more likely that state will use them for either blackmail or conquest. This study disproved this idea. We took from sociologist the concept of the state and ruling elite contribute to a shared pseudo-environment, as Walter Lippman observed the behaviors produced by the pseudo-environment is manifested in the real environment, causing unintended consequences and misunderstandings of behaviors, which leads to crisis and if one is not careful war. Combining this perceptional phenomenon, this study applied John Boyd’s dialect engine and the Observe, Orient, Decision, and Action (OODA) Loop to the decision making process of small states and found small states who choose to pursue nuclear and missile technology have the common characteristics: charismatic leadership of the ruling elite, tacit knowledge of the scientific elite, the ability to control the natural environment as infrastructure, and the state’s capacity to harness and mobilize resources necessary to develop the technology. The conclusion of the study is; small state proliferationis not a strategic activity and the world should encourage proliferation not hinder it in small states. However, the use of these weapons, should be understood by all states, will ensure the death of the ruling elite and the state which uses them.