Abstract
In the ninth chapter, the author demonstrates how the Euro-Atlantic security system’s shift from cooperation to rivalry for spheres of influence reached its apogee in the Ukraine crisis. In the spring of 2014, following the arrival in power in Kyiv of nationalist and pro-Western politicians the crisis turned into an international crisis and to Russian intervention. Like the leading neorealists, the author holds the view that Ukraine was the scene of a clash between the West and Russia. The West attempted to draw Ukraine into its sphere of interests, and Russia countered this by annexing Crimea and by supporting militarily the secession of Ukraine’s eastern provinces (the Donbas). This crisis had a very negative impact on the Euro-Atlantic security system. It led to geopolitical rivalry, to military confrontation and to the weakening of Ukraine. The author also analyzes the chances for overcoming the crisis, by pointing to the need for a compromise with the participation of the three interested parties—Ukraine, the West and Russia.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Kissinger (2014).
- 3.
Verheugen ostrzega przed Kijowem … (2014).
- 4.
Father Isakowicz-Zaleski noted that one of those ministers, Andriy Mokhnik “is an excellent example of the aggression of Ukrainian nationalism, because four years ago, he broke up a conference devoted to the genocide in Volhynia”. In the priest’s opinion, the consolidation of the pro-Bandera party Svoboda is convenient for Russian president Vladimir Putin. The Polish government should support the pro-European aspirations of Ukraine and, at the same time, say clearly that it doesn’t wish “to pal around” with nationalists and banderists, because they are anti-Polish, and not entirely European. He also expressed the fear that Putin will take advantage of the fear of the banderist movement in order to split up Ukraine, and “the worst possible outcome is the disintegration of Ukraine, because then there will be no counter-balance for Ukrainian nationalism”. See Jesteśmy na progu podziału Ukrainy … (2014).
- 5.
Plenarprotokoll 18/20 … (2014).
- 6.
Były ambasador USA w ZSRR Jack Matlock … (2014).
- 7.
- 8.
- 9.
Kaczmarski (2015).
- 10.
Mearsheimer (2001).
- 11.
Dugin (1997).
- 12.
This concerns efforts made by Russia and China to prevent the UN Security Council from authorizing an armed intervention in Syria for the purpose of toppling the regime of Al. Assad.
- 13.
The Russian government convinced the Iranian authorities to submit their nuclear program to international control—something the United States proved unable to do.
- 14.
Trenin (2014), p. 1. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ukraine_great_power_rivalry2014.pdf. Accessed January 27, 2018.
- 15.
Former Polish prime minister Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, until then known for his toned down pronouncements, stated in March 2014 on one of the Polish television stations, that “Russia had shown the face of a thug”, and that its leading politicians lie so, that they are all growing Pinocchio noses. See Rosja pokazała gębę bandziora … (2014).
- 16.
Janukowycz … (2013).
- 17.
Authors analyzing the issue from a constructivist standpoint claim that the EU imposed sanctions against Russia for having violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and the right of Ukrainians to self-determination. See Sjursen and Rosén (2017).
- 18.
ONZ … (2014).
- 19.
Joint Geneva Statement on Ukraine (2014).
- 20.
Borger and Luhn (2014).
- 21.
Sakwa (2015), p. 26.
- 22.
Smith (2016), p. 35.
- 23.
Cohen (2014b).
- 24.
Mearsheimer (2014), p. 1.
- 25.
For more, see Morelli (2017), pp. 36–41.
- 26.
According to Putin, the protesters in Kyiv were trained in bases near the border in Lithuania, Poland and in Ukraine itself. The spokesman of the Polish defense ministry denied this information on Twitter. See Świat … (2014).
- 27.
Stoner and McFaul (2015), pp. 181–184.
- 28.
Walt (2015).
- 29.
- 30.
Zięba (2013), pp. 200–202.
- 31.
Stolarczyk (2014), p. 62.
- 32.
Łagowski (2014).
- 33.
The Normandy Format is a group of four states: Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine to resolve a conflict in eastern Ukraine. The group was created on June 6, 2014, when France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine leaders met on the margins of the 70th anniversary of the D-Day allied landings in Normandy (in 1944).
- 34.
- 35.
In Minsk, during the August 26, 2014 summit of the EU and the Customs Union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, with the president of Ukraine participating, Russia’s president said that Ukraine’s signing of an association agreement with the EU would cause Russia to lose over 100 billion rubles (about 2.1 billion euro). See Mińsk … (2014).
- 36.
Cohen wrote “It was to that that Putin reacted. It was to the fear that the new government in Kiev, which overthrew the elected government, had NATO backing and its next move would be toward Crimea and the Russian naval base there… But he was reacting, and as Kiev began an all-out war against the East, calling it the ‘anti-terrorist operation,’ with Washington’s blessing. …”. Kovalik (2015).
- 37.
Obrashcheniye Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii, 18 marta 2014 goda [Statement of the President of the Russian Federation, March 18, 2014] http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603. Accessed January 27, 2018.
- 38.
Becker et al. (2016), pp. 123–126. Roy Allison proceeds to assess in detail three different explanations for Russia’s operations in Ukraine: geopolitical competition and structural power (including the strategic benefits of seizing Crimea); identity and ideational factors; and the search for domestic political consolidation in Russia. See Allison (2014).
- 39.
Kryzys na Ukrainie … (2014).
- 40.
Ibidem. See also Sibal (2014).
- 41.
Góralczyk (2014).
- 42.
- 43.
Morgenthau (1967), p. 4.
- 44.
In the next two sections I use the theses contained in my article Zięba (2017b), p. 117 et seq.
- 45.
Ibidem, pp. 9–10. Morgenthau, H. (1967). Politics among Nations…, p. 9-10.
- 46.
See Karagiannis (2013).
- 47.
See Wolff (2014).
- 48.
Freedman (2014), pp. 8–12.
- 49.
- 50.
Lee et al. (2017), USA dostarczą Ukrainie … (2017). Incidentally, western information agencies gained access to State Department documents showing that Ukraine had been buying small quantities of such weapons for several years, both before and after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and in succeeding years.
- 51.
See Chap. 6 in this volume.
- 52.
Belkin et al. (2014), p. 4.
- 53.
10 tysięcy ofiar śmiertelnych konfliktu na Ukrainie … (2017). The conflict in Ukraine continued unabated, and at the beginning of 2018, UN sources put the number of persons killed at 10,300. This figure includes the 298 passengers of the Malaysian Airlines plane shot down by separatists over eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014.
- 54.
On 25 March 2014, Yevhen Perebyinis, the spokesman of the Ukrainian foreign ministry, declared that his country does not plan to revert to the status of nuclear power.
- 55.
See van Ham (1994), pp. 13–14.
- 56.
Nuland zatrzęsła Kijowem … (2015).
- 57.
Comment by the Information and Press Department … (2018).
- 58.
Ibidem.
- 59.
Ibidem.
- 60.
Kublik (2015).
- 61.
The American political elites are convinced that Ukraine faces two main threats: Russian aggression, and corruption. For this reason, they think that, on the one hand, Ukraine should be given lethal weapons and, on the other helped to combat corruption. See Carpenter (2018).
- 62.
Nowy ukraiński rząd zaprzysiężony … (2016).
- 63.
The Netherlands ratified the association agreement only in June 2017, after the European Council had, in December 2016, had adopted a compromise declaration stating that the agreement was not an introduction to Ukraine’s membership in the EU, it does not obligate the EU to defend that country, and does not open the EU labor market to Ukrainian workers. This made it possible for the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU to come into full force on September 1, 2017. See to Busygina (2018), p. 192.
- 64.
Zając (2016), p. 147.
- 65.
Lavrov: gotovy rabotat’s administratsiyey … (2017).
- 66.
For more, see Bieleń (2015).
- 67.
See Footnote 24.
- 68.
Arbatova and Dynkin (2016), p. 71.
- 69.
See Cohen (2014a).
- 70.
Mearsheimer (2014), p. 12.
- 71.
See Footnote 2.
- 72.
See Brzezinski (2014).
- 73.
See Footnote 6.
- 74.
Walt (2015).
- 75.
See Footnote 3.
- 76.
See Sekielski … (2014).
- 77.
Od Władywostoku do Lizbony … (2015).
- 78.
See Vystupleniye i otvety na voprosy … (2014).
- 79.
- 80.
Stadler (2015).
- 81.
Kryzys w Rosji … (2015). https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/unia-europejska/wiadomosci/artykul/kryzys-w-rosji-paryz-obiecuje-moskwie-pomoc,145,0,1871761.html. Accessed January 22, 2018. Compare with David (2017).
- 82.
Rieker and Lundby Gjerde (2016), pp. 319–320.
- 83.
- 84.
In December 2016, Russia, Turkey and Iran brought about a ceasefire between the governmental forces and the moderate opposition in Syria. It was an obvious success of Russian diplomacy, which showed that if collaboration with the West doesn’t work, it can find other partners.
- 85.
See Footnote 2.
- 86.
Ibidem.
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Zięba, R. (2018). The Ukraine Crisis and Its Implications for the Euro-Atlantic Security System. In: The Euro-Atlantic Security System in the 21st Century. Global Power Shift. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-79105-0_9
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