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Conclusions: Consequences of the Crisis of the Euro-Atlantic Security System and Prospects for Its Evolution

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Book cover The Euro-Atlantic Security System in the 21st Century

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Abstract

The tenth and final chapter presents the author’s conclusions from the analyses of the functioning of the Euro-Atlantic security system in the 21st century. The author confirms his hypothesis, according to which this system found itself in a state of crisis consisting of a return to rivalry for spheres of influence and the suspension of cooperation. By observing the redistribution of capabilities in the global international order, the author notes the gradual weakening of the West and the simultaneous increase of Russia’s international position and the worsening sense of security in Central European countries, which feel threatened by Russia. Drawing inspiration from the theses of the neorealists and from Charles Kupchan, the author predicts a further weakening of the importance of the Euro-Atlantic security system in the global international order and the growing anarchy of world security. In conclusion, he points to the need to introduce new institutional arrangements to halt these negative trends.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Zięba (2004), pp. 50–58.

  2. 2.

    Rose (1998), Schweller (2003), Taliaferro (2006).

  3. 3.

    Smith (2015).

  4. 4.

    Mead (2014).

  5. 5.

    The fullest analysis of the redistribution of power presently underway is found in Klieman (2015).

  6. 6.

    Crocker (2015).

  7. 7.

    During his visit to Poland, Giorgi Margvelashvili, the president of Georgia, said to the media on November 9, 2017 that the West’s lack of reaction to Russia’s military operation against Georgia in 2008 encouraged Russia to intervene militarily in Crimea and in the Donbas in 2014.

  8. 8.

    See Chivvis (2012).

  9. 9.

    Sussex (2017), et seq.

  10. 10.

    Russia and China resolved the last unsettled territorial issue related to the eastern section of their border. The two powers signed agreements in October 2004 and in July 2008. The latter one on the demarcation of the border ended a long-running territorial dispute between two states.

  11. 11.

    Leichtova (2014).

  12. 12.

    Stent (2014), pp. 155–156.

  13. 13.

    Director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Mikhail Ulyanov’s interview with Interfax, March 11, 2015. Moscow: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. http://www.mid.ru/en/publikacii/-/asset_publisher/nTzOQTrrCFd0/content/id/1090147 (Accessed on Jan. 27, 2018).

  14. 14.

    Sakwa (2017), pp. 187 et seq.

  15. 15.

    See: Putin, Erdogan and Rouhan (2018).

  16. 16.

    Kahl (2017).

  17. 17.

    Remarks by Federica Mogherini … (2018). See also Pieper (2017).

  18. 18.

    Mearsheimer (2001), p. 404.

  19. 19.

    Brooks and Wohlforth (2015/2016). Comp. Beckley (2011/2012).

  20. 20.

    Kupchan (2012a), p. 85.

  21. 21.

    Parent and Rosato (2015).

  22. 22.

    Mahmud Ali (2015), pp. 107–146, Stuenkel (2016), p. 74. More see Fravel (2005), Fels (2017).

  23. 23.

    Mearsheimer (2014), p. 27.

  24. 24.

    Chong and Hall (2014).

  25. 25.

    See Gompert, Cevallos and Garafola (2016), pp. III, 13–18.

  26. 26.

    Layne (2018). Also see Allisson (2017).

  27. 27.

    Friedberg (2015).

  28. 28.

    Glaser and Fetter (2016). Also see Quek and Johnston (2017/2018).

  29. 29.

    Donnelly (2006).

  30. 30.

    Goldgeier and Suri (2016).

  31. 31.

    Maher (2016).

  32. 32.

    Barrett (1996).

  33. 33.

    The Alliance’s Strategic Concept, Approved by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. on 23rd and 24th AprilThe Alliance’s Strategic Concept, Approved by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Washington D.C. on 23rd and 24th April 1999. NATO Press Release NAC-S(99)65, 24 April 1999.

  34. 34.

    Sénarclens (2000), McCoubrey (1999). On the justification for this intervention see Ronzitti (1999), Dupuy (2000a, b).

  35. 35.

    Ghebali (1999).

  36. 36.

    Zięba (2000).

  37. 37.

    Charap and Shapiro (2015), p. 38.

  38. 38.

    Kupchan (2012), pp. 187, 205.

  39. 39.

    See Patrick (2016), pp. 23–24.

  40. 40.

    Compare Crocker (2015), pp. 14–15.

  41. 41.

    Hofmann et al. (2016).

  42. 42.

    See the articles derived from a conference on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) held under the auspices of the Center for American and Global Security at Indiana University-Bloomington, 15–16 May 2015. Ziegler (2016). Also see Tocci (2016).

  43. 43.

    Stuenkel (2016), p. 114, Stefan (2017).

  44. 44.

    In January 2017, 2639 Chinese soldiers took part in this mission, and the Chinese president announced that the Chinese contingent would be increased to as high as 7000 soldiers. Later, following a decision by the UN, China reduced its contingent to 1033 soldiers in October 2017. Larger contingents have been sent by India (2333 soldiers), Ruanda (1945), Nepal (1710), Bangladesh (1592) and Ethiopia (1447). Initially, a large numbers of soldiers were also sent for this mission by Brazil (1303) and South Africa (1427). https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unmiss (Accessed on Jan. 27, 2018).

  45. 45.

    For more, see Kaczmarski (2017).

  46. 46.

    Cohen (2014).

  47. 47.

    Yost (2015).

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    Ryszard Zięba

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Zięba, R. (2018). Conclusions: Consequences of the Crisis of the Euro-Atlantic Security System and Prospects for Its Evolution. In: The Euro-Atlantic Security System in the 21st Century. Global Power Shift. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-79105-0_10

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