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Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Peak Ground Acceleration for the Icelandic Strong-Motion Arrays

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Proceedings of the International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (ICESD 2017)

Part of the book series: Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering ((GGEE,volume 47))

Abstract

A reliable estimation of regional ground motion plays a critical role in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake resistant design of structures within a region of a small spatial scale is often based on the assumption of relatively uniform form-factors which leads to the assumption of same station condition. However, for some small-scale regions this may not be the case. In this study, we propose a new Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) for peak ground acceleration (PGA) records from two small-aperture Icelandic strong-motion arrays. The proposed BHM characterizes source effect, local station effect, source-station effect, and an error term that represents the measurement error and other unaccounted factors, separately. Posterior inference is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that uses the Metropolis algorithm. Uncertainty in unknown parameters is assessed through their joint posterior density. Analysis of PGA records based on the proposed BHM will improve the comprehensive understanding of the source effects, localized station conditions, and wave propagation.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Icelandic Centre for Research (Grant of Excellence no. 141261-051/52/53), the Icelandic Catastrophe Insurance (Grant no. S112-2013) the University of Iceland Research Fund, and the Doctoral grants from Eimskip Fund of the University of Iceland.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, and Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Selfoss, Iceland

    Sahar Rahpeyma & Benedikt Halldorsson

  2. Division of Processing and Research, Icelandic Meteorological Office, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland

    Benedikt Halldorsson

  3. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

    Birgir Hrafnkelsson

Authors
  1. Sahar Rahpeyma
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  2. Benedikt Halldorsson
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  3. Birgir Hrafnkelsson
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Benedikt Halldorsson .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

    Rajesh Rupakhety

  2. Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (EERC), University of Iceland, Selfoss, Iceland

    Simon Olafsson

  3. Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

    Bjarni Bessason

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Rahpeyma, S., Halldorsson, B., Hrafnkelsson, B. (2019). Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Peak Ground Acceleration for the Icelandic Strong-Motion Arrays. In: Rupakhety, R., Olafsson, S., Bessason, B. (eds) Proceedings of the International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. ICESD 2017. Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering, vol 47. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78187-7_3

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