Abstract
It is not possible to close a chapter, in this Trilogy, dedicated, though with a selective purpose, to the work of Jan Tinbergen, without mentioning of the greatest opera that Tinbergen supplied, in seventies, to the United Nations Organisation and to the World Community entire, for the ‘Reshaping the International Order’, called RIO, This is a Report written, under the Chairmanship of Tinbergen, and under his coordination and compilation and inspiring by an international Committee whose members, special experts of different single matters or disciplines (22 members, 11 from developed countries, and 11 members from developing countries) all under the narrow coordination of Tinbergen, has been diffused in the 1977, (also as ‘third study’ of the Club of Rome).
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Notes
- 1.
Tinbergen (1903–1949) was born in the Hague, studied in Leiden University (overall studied mathematics and physics). His Ph.D. thesis 1929, in the Leiden university, was entitled “Minimization Problems in Physics and Economics”. This topic was suggested by Paul Ehrenfest, a well known physician from Vienna, naturalized Dutch, who allowed Tinbergen to combine his interests in mathematics and physics, with economics and politics. After graduating, he worked in the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in the Hague, discovering some modalities for which mathematics were able to help the formulation of economic policies ‘theorems’.
- 2.
In Sect. 7.3 of the General Introduction (Vol. I) I reported a chronological list of the entire scientific production of Jan Tinbergen, like a special bibliography. The reader can refer himself to that list for a general impressive scope of Tinbergen’s works, as a life dedicated entirely to the programming of the economic policy. However in this chapter, will be supplied a profile of Tinbergen based on the selection only of two works. The two works are:
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a.
The first work which we choose as basis of this chapter, is a text by Tinbergen of 1964 (Yale University Press), where he includes the best of his experience as director of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau in order to experiment his ideas in respect to the processes of economic programming unique example of implementation of ideas of a theoretical economist in cooperation with a real Government. However also that has been unfortunately in the seventies also a ungenerous and shameful epochal flop.
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b.
The second work of him was willingly greeted among scientists and politicians, was the contribute given the Project promoted by United Nations in 1976 ‘For Reinforcement of International Order’ (RIO). Tinbergen was a president, Director of this research project and the recognized Director and Author and compiler of the Report, while collaborating with a Committee of 22 experts (half from the third-world countries and half from industrial countries). The organization that took care of it was the ‘Club of Rome’ (and his publication in 1977 was cared by Elsevier publishing house in Amsterdam). horizon horizon is dark and ‘barbaric’!
This Report is a Document of which we do not find a better at international and worldly scale. Since (1976) it occurred a continuous regress of political attention toward any type of programming socio-economic advancement at international scale which is still waiting a retrieval. The new generations, in every world side, of scholars, be wise to drain rush and benefit and new ideas of are rich. But the horizon is dark and ‘barbaric’!
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a.
- 3.
Clearly any forecast must always be based on a large number of assumptions, both about the operation of the economy and about the probable course of the so-called ‘data’ or external or exogenous variables. Everybody making a forecast chooses these assumptions as realistically as possible, but even so forecasts will as a rule not coincide with the actual course of events. There does not seem to be any reason, therefore, to make a distinction between forecasts and so-called projections.
- 4.
It may be that this comparison suggests the impossibility of reaching the aims originally set and therefore leads to their modification. As a rule, however, a more definite conclusion as to the feasibility of the aims proposed can only be reached in the third phase.
- 5.
This example represents a simplified illustration of the situation in the Netherlands during the first decade after the Second World War.
- 6.
The activities described here represent, in simplified form, the work done by the State Planning Organization of Turkey in preparing the Five-Year Plan 1963-&]. Cf. also Programming Techniques for Economic Development (United Nations, Bangkok, 1960).
- 7.
Tinbergen has published, (that I chose among his works) in his book ‘Central Planning’ (1964) , with more specific and useful information to lead to the implementation performance for planning the economic policy for Governments, an Appendix concerning the results of an Inquiry for an International comparison (by questionnaire) in cooperation with the United Nations Organization. The results of the Inquiry show the Planning Process as applied in a great quantities of several countries in that epoch (the sixties of the past century) that have tried, in the good and in the evil, an experiment in the strict and rigorous system of collectivity and community decisions, helped by technical planning.
Such results are very ‘dated’ (better is not available on this matter). The UNO at the epoch were totally absent and silent, on this matter! But as dated-now are notwithstanding significant, as a measurement of the failure occurred, and of the efforts that should be still made in Europe and elsewhere, in other countries of the planet, for introducing economic planning. Efforts that have been not accompanied until today by no serious implementation supported by a political engagement of the type discussed in this Trilogy. The Planning process, as it is courageously experimented in practice, even with careful description of Tinbergen, and has been sacrificed by the lack of interest of the ruling classes, in a democratic course of the economic policy of government.
- 8.
Cf. R. Frisch, Economic Planning and the Growth Problem in Developing Countries (Special number, 1961).
- 9.
Cf. J. Tinbergen, “Planning in Stages,” Statsekonomisk Tidsskriit (1962), p. 1.
- 10.
Cf. “Les methodes actuelles sovietiques de planification,” Economies des democraties populaires, Cahiers de l’Institut de Science Economique Appliquee, Serie G, NO·7 (Paris, 1958).
- 11.
Cf. J. Tinbergen. Econometrics (New York. 1951), pp. 143.
- 12.
Cf. John R. Meyer and Edwin Kuh, The Investment Decision (Cambridge, MA, 1957).
- 13.
J. Tinbergen, “Should the Income Tax Be among the Means of Economic Policy?” Festskrijt til Frederik Zeuthen (Copenhagen, 1958), p. 351.
- 14.
Cf. Albert O. Hirschman, The Strategy of Economic Development (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1958).
- 15.
Cf. G. Bambach and C. Chr. von Weizsacker, ‚Optimales Wachstum und Gleichgewichrswachsturn, in Optimales Wachstum und optimale Standortuerteilung, Schrijten des Vereins [iir Sozialpolitik (Berlin. 1962); S. Chakravarty, “Optimal Savings with Finite Planning Horizon,” International Economic Review, 3 (1962): 338; L.M. Koyck and M.J. ‘t HooftWelvaars, Economic Growth, Marginal Productivity of Capital and the Rate of Interest (International Economic Association. Royaumont Conference. 1962).
- 16.
Herbert A. Simon. Causal Ordering and Identifiability, in Studies in Econometric Method, ed. V.C. Hood and T.C. Koopmans (New York and London. 1953). p. 49.
- 17.
J. Tinbergen. ‘Planning in Stages’ in Satsokonomisk ‘I’idsskriit,:-.0. I (1962). pp. 1–20.
- 18.
Cf. J. Tinbergen, Shaping the World Economy (New York, 1962c).
- 19.
Thus Deutsch introduced the concept of deutocracy, combining the words ‘Deutsch’ and ‘autocracy’ to get the new term.
- 20.
On the survey indicated Deutsch states that:
Thinking about the whole world and some of its major changes has been facilitated by five developments:
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1.
There has been a vast increase in the availability of data. The amount of aggregated tactical data provided by the United Nations increased tenfold in the decade 1950–1960 and it seems plausible that it grew at about the same rate in the two following decades. More categories of data are now available, or that more correlations, cross sections and configurations can be identified (Russett 1983, see Biblio.). During the same period the quality of data has improved. Methods of data collection and the definition of categories has become more standardized and numerous officials of the central tactical offices of many countries has received uniform model training under the United Nations auspices.
At the same time, series of worldwide data on international wars, military confrontations and civil wars have been collected and published (see Wright 1942; Small and Singer 1982, see Biblio.).
-
2.
The amount of confirmed existential statements from social science has very much increased (Berelson and Steiner 1964, see Biblio.). Existential statements are statements of the form “there is” or “if… then” and they can be confirmed or disconfirmed they form a subclass within the larger class of scientific statements.
-
3.
There has been considerable growth in mathematical and statistical methods and in their applications to the social scientists.
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4.
The speed, memory capacity and computing power of electronic computers, increased vastly between 1947 and 1972 and has continued to grow since then (Feigenbaum and McCorduck 1985, see Biblio.).
-
5.
Complex models of large scale-processes where constructed in the natural and social sciences. Models of the behavior of the Chalk River in Canada and of the regional hydroelectric power system of California. Econometric models of national economies became numerous in the 1960s and later a number of such national models were connected in Project LINK (Klein 1975, see Biblio.) so far, however all these models have been usable only for short-term projections.
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Another approach—Deutsch adds—to model building used the method of simulation. Here extensive pioneering work on the international level was undertaken by Harold Guetzkow and his associates 1963, Paul Smoker 1973, and later by Stuart A. Bremer 1977 (see Biblio.). This early work combined computerized elements with the behavior of human players and could be used to study the latter in simulated situations of international conflict and cooperations.
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[Source: Karl W. Deutsch, GLOBUS—The rise of a new field of political science, Foreword in The GLOBUS Model (see Biblio.)].
This Trilogy will treat again about The Globus Model, Deutsch, in the Chap. 3 in the Part 3 of Vol. III and we refer to this treatment any further information that we consider important for the reader of the Trilogy to approach a full consciousness of the method and the future functional utility of the GLOBUS Model.
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1.
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Archibugi, F. (2019). The methodology of the ‘Central Planning’ for the implementation of the ‘Programming Approach’ (The great role of Jan Tinbergen). In: The Programming Approach and the Demise of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78057-3_8
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