Abstract
An Uncertainty Quantification analysis of a swirled stabilized combustor experiment is performed. The objective is to estimate the modal risk factor of the system, i.e. the probability of a thermoacoustic mode to be unstable, which may facilitate the development and optimization of suitable control methods. To propagate uncertainties, a Monte Carlo method is initially used based on 4000 Helmholtz-based thermoacoustic simulations with random perturbations on the flame input parameters. The analysis of the Monte Carlo database suggests that a reduced two-step Uncertainty Quantification strategy may be efficient to deal with thermoacoustic systems. First, three bilinear surrogate models are tuned from a moderate number of Helmholtz solutions (a few tens). Then, these algebraic models are used to perform a Monte Carlo analysis at reduced cost and approximate the risk factor of the mode. Good agreements are obtained when comparing the risk factor from the full Monte Carlo database and the risk factor from surrogate models.
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Acknowledgements
This study was performed within the UMRIDA project funded by the European Commission (FP7-AAT-2013-RTD-1-605036). The authors also thank the Center for Turbulence Research for its support during the 2014 Summer Program. Professor G. Iaccarino (Stanford University) and P. Constantine (UMINES Colorado) are acknowledged for their help regarding the UQ strategy.
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Ndiaye, A., Nicoud, F. (2019). Uncertainties for Thermoacoustics: A First Analysis. In: Hirsch, C., Wunsch, D., Szumbarski, J., Łaniewski-Wołłk, Ł., Pons-Prats, J. (eds) Uncertainty Management for Robust Industrial Design in Aeronautics . Notes on Numerical Fluid Mechanics and Multidisciplinary Design, vol 140. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77767-2_5
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