Abstract
This chapter summarizes recent work to examine whether there be any effect of postulated climate change scenarios on the hurricane (joint wind and rain) hazard. Considering a worst-case climate change scenario from the most recent IPCC report and region along the US coastline that saw the largest increase in sea surface temperature under that scenario, results show conclusively that there is an effect on the hurricane hazard. The results of event-based simulation can be used to statistically characterize the hurricane hazard (wind-only, or wind and rain). This information can inform decision-makers, planners, emergency managers, electric power or other utilities, transportation and other public works departments, insurers or other risk portfolio managers. Results from such analyses also can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of possible mitigation strategies to ameliorate expected impacts and moderate risks (or consequent losses) to an acceptable level.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
ASCE (2010) Minimum design loads for building and other structures, ASCE Standard 7-10. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA
Darling R (1991) Estimating probabilities of hurricane wind speeds using a large scale empirical model. J Clim 4(10):1035–1046
Emanuel KA (2008) The Hurricane-climate connection. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89(5):10–20
Georgiou PN (1985) Design wind speeds in tropical cyclone-prone regions. Doctoral Dissertation, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario
Huang Z, Rosowsky DV (2000) Analysis of Hurricane directionality effects using event-based simulation. Wind & Structures 3(3):177–191
Huang Z, Rosowsky DV, Sparks PR (2001) Hurricane simulation techniques for the evaluation of wind speeds and expected insurance losses. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 89:605–617
Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ (2010) The TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). In: Gebremichael M, Hossain F (eds) Satellite rainfall applications for surface hyrdology. Springer, Greenbelt, MD
Jarvinen B, Neumann C, Davis M (1984) A tropical cyclone data type for the North Atlantic Basin, (1886–1983): contents, limitations, and uses. Technical Report No. NWS NHC 22, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Miami, FL
Knutson TR, Tuleya RE (2004) Impact of CO2 induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J Clim 17(18):3477–3495
Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Sugi M et al (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3(3):157–163
Lee KH, Rosowsky DV (2007) Synthetic Hurricane wind speed records: development of a database for hazard analysis and risk studies. Nat Hazards Rev 8(2):23–34
Mudd L (2014) A multi-hazard assessment of climatological impacts on Hurricanes affecting the Northeast US: wind and rain. Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY
Mudd L, Wang Y, Letchford C, Rosowsky D (2014a) Assessing climate change impact on the U.S. East Coast Hurricane hazard: temperature, frequency, and track. Nat Hazards Rev 15(3):04014001
Mudd L, Wang Y, Letchford C, Rosowsky D (2014b) Hurricane wind hazard assessment for rapidly warming climate scenario. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 133:242–249
Mudd L, Rosowsky D, Letchford C, Lombardo F (2016) A joint probabilistic wind-rainfall model for tropical cyclone hazard characterization. ASCE J Struct Eng, to appear
Pachauri RK (2008) Climate Change 2007—synthesis report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, CH
Pachauri RK (2014) Climate Change 2014—synthesis report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, CH
Rosowsky D, Mudd L, Letchford C (2016) Assessing climate change impact on the joint wind-rain Hurricane hazard for the Northeastern U.S. Coastline. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards, Springer, Heidelberg
Sinh HN, Lombardo FT, Letchford CW, Rosowsky DV (2016) Characterization of joint wind and ice hazard in Midwestern United States. ASCE Nat Hazards Rev 04016004
Tuleya RE, DeMaria M, Kuligowski RJ (2007) Evaluation of GFDL and simple statistical model rainfall forecasts for US landfalling tropical storms. Weather Forecast 22(1):56–70
Vickery PJ, Twisdale LA (1995) Wind-field and filling models for Hurricane wind speed predictions. ASCE J Struct Eng 121(11):1700–1709
Vickery PJ, Skerlj P, Twisdale L (2000) Simulation of Hurricane risk in the US using empirical track model. ASCE J Struct Eng 121(11):1700–1709
Wang Y, Rosowsky DV (2012) Joint distribution model for prediction of Hurricane wind speed and size. Struct Safety 35(1):40–51
Wang Y, Rosowsky DV (2013) Characterization of joint wind-snow hazard for performance-based design. Struct Safety 43:21–27
Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to the following research group members for their many incremental and important contributions to our work in hurricane hazard modeling over the years: Zhigang Huang (Ph.D. student), Kyung Ho Lee (Ph.D. student), Lauren Mudd (Ph.D. student), and Yue Wang (Ph.D. student and post-doctoral researcher). Each built on the work of their predecessors, adding substantively to the state-of-the-art and the scientific literature. The author also is grateful to colleagues Chris Letchford, Frank Lombardo, Weichiang Pang, Peter Vickery, Peter Sparks, Ben Sill, Scott Schiff, and Tim Reinhold for their contributions and guidance over the years as this work evolved.
Writing about research in a non-technical style, or a less technical style than would more typically be employed to present scientific research, often requires an author to “stretch new muscles” to find their voice. The author acknowledges the work of Alan Alda and his team at the Alda Center for Communicating Science at Stony Brook University (and the affiliates network that includes the University of Vermont) for helping so many of us find that voice.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Rosowsky, D.V. (2018). Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Hurricane Hazards. In: Murphy, C., Gardoni, P., McKim, R. (eds) Climate Change and Its Impacts. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77544-9_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77544-9_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-77543-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-77544-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)