Abstract
The science is clear that the Earth’s climate, including that of the United States, is changing, changing much more rapidly than generally occurs naturally, and it is happening primarily because of human activities. This chapter discusses the science underlying climate change and the current understanding of how our planet is being affected. In addition to the global analysis, there is special attention given to the findings for the United States. Humanity is already feeling the effects from increasing intensity of certain types of extreme weather and from sea level rise that are fueled by the changing climate. Climate change affects many sectors of our society, including threats on human health and well-being. Climate change will, absent other factors, amplify some of the existing threats we now face. The effects on humanity are already significant, costing us many billions of dollars each year along with the effects on human lives and health. Policy to respond to climate change is imperative—we have three choices, mitigation, adaptation, or suffering. Right now we are doing some of all three. The Paris Agreement begins the process internationally of really doing something to slow down change. But the current agreement is just the beginning and we will need to do much more.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Boberg F, Berg P, Thejll P, Gutowski WJ, Christensen JH (2009) Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble. Clim Dyn 32:1097–1106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0446-y
Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2003) Oceanography: anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425:365. https://doi.org/10.1038/425365a
Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown SJ (2011) The role of human activity in the recent warming of extremely warm daytime temperatures. J Clim 24:1922–1930. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
Church JA, White NJ (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32:585–602. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1
Church JA, White NJ, Konikow LF, Domingues CM, Cogley JG, Rignot E, Gregory JM, van den Broeke MR, Monaghan AJ, Velicogna I (2011) Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophys Res Lett 38:L18601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048794
Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S, Phillips AS (2012) Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat Clim Change 2:775–779. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1562
Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M, Trapp RJ (2013) Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:16361–16366. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307758110
Doney SC, Fabry VJ, Feely RA, Kleypas JA (2009) Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem. Ann Rev Mar Sci 1:169–192. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834
Duffy PB, Tebaldi C (2012) Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S. Clim Change 111:487–495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6
Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon JM, Ianson D, Hales B (2008) Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf. Science 320:1490–1492. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155676
Feely RA, Alin SR, Newton J, Sabine CL, Warner M, Devol A, Krembs C, Maloy C (2010) The combined effects of ocean acidification, mixing, and respiration on pH and carbonate saturation in an urbanized estuary. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 88:442–449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2010.05.004
Gillett NP, Arora VK, Flato GM, Scinocca JF, Salzen KV (2012) Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations. Geophys Res Lett 39:L01704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050226
Güneralp B, Güneralp İ, Liu Y (2015) Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards. Glob Environ Change 31:217–225
Gutowski WJ, Takle ES, Kozak KA, Patton JC, Arritt RW, Christensen JH (2007) A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming. J Hydrometeorology 8:1382–1396. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jhm817.1
Hansen J, Sato M et al (2007) Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study. Atmos Chem Phys 7:2287–2312. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteor Soc 90:1095–1107. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37:407–418
Hoerling M, Chen M, Dole R, Eischeid J, Kumar A, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Pegion P, Perlwitz J, Quan X-W, Zhang T (2013) Anatomy of an extreme event. J Clim 26:2811–2832. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1
Hönisch B, Ridgwell A et al (2012) The geological record of ocean acidification. Science 335:1058–1063. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1208277
Huber M, Knutti R (2011) Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance. Nature Geosci. 5:31–36. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1327
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattenr G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, p 582
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p 151
Janssen E, Wuebbles DJ, Kunkel KE, Olsen SC, Goodman A (2014) Trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States. Earth’s Future 2:99–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000185
Karl TR, Arguez A, Huang B, Lawrimore JH, McMahon JR, Menne MJ, Peterson TC, Vose RS, Zhang H (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science 348:1469–1472
Kunkel KE et al (2013) Monitoring and understanding changes in extreme storm statistics: state of knowledge. Bullet Am Meteorol Soc 94:499–514. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1
Le Quéré C et al (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nat Geosci 2:831–836. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo689
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:13252–13257. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805721105
Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Hofer M (2012) Past and future sea level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere Discuss 6:3177–3241. https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012
Mathis JT, Cross JN, Bates NR (2011) Coupling primary production and terrestrial runoff to ocean acidification and carbonate mineral suppression in the eastern Bering Sea. J Geophys Res 116:C02030. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006453
Matthews HD, Zickfeld K (2012) Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nat Clim Change 2:338–341. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1424
McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urbanization 19:17–37
Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Walton G, Easterling D, McDaniel L (2009) Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophys Res Lett 36:L23701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040736
Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) (2014) Climate change impacts in the United States: the third national climate assessment. In: U.S. global change research program, p 840. Available at http://nca2014.globalchange.gov
Min S, Zhang X, Zwiers F, Hegerl G (2011) Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470:378–381
Nerem RS, Chambers DP, Choe C, Mitchum GT (2010) Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions. Mar Geodesy 33:435–446. https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031
Neumann B, Vafeidis AT, Zimmermann J, Nicholls RJ (2015) Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding—a global assessment. PLoS ONE 10(3):e0118571. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
Orr JC (2011) Recent and future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry. In: Gattuso J-P, Hansson L (eds) Ocean acidification. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 41–66
Orr JC et al (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681–686. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04095
PAGES 2 K Consortium (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6:339–346. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797
Parris A, Bromirski P, Burkett V, Cayan D, Culver M, Hall J, Horton R, Knuuti K, Moss R, Obeysekera J, Sallenger A, Weiss J (2012) Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States national climate assessment. In: NOAA tech memo OAR CPO-1, National oceanic and atmospheric administration, pp 37. Available online at http://scenarios.globalchange.gov/sites/default/files/NOAA_SLR_r3_0.pdf
Peterson TC et al (2013) Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States: state of knowledge. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:821–834. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1
Rahmstorf S, Perrette M, Vermeer M (2012) Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Clim Dyn 39:861–875. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7
Rupp DE, Mote PW, Massey N, Rye CJ, Jones R, Allen MR (2012) Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable? In: Peterson TC, Stott PA, Herring S (eds) Explaining extreme events of 2011 from a climate perspective. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, pp 1052–1054
Santer BD et al (2013) Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:26–33. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210514109
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Smith AB, Katz RW (2013) U.S. Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Nat Hazard 67:387–410
Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC, Karoly DJ, Stone DA, Zhang X, Zwiers F (2010) Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdisc Rev Clim Change 1:192–211. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.34
Swanson KL, Sugihara G, Tsonis AA (2009) Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:16120–16123. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0908699106
Trenberth KE (2011) Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2:925-930. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.142
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2012) Climate extremes and climate change: the Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010. J. Geophys Res Atmos 117:D17103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018020
UK Royal Society (UKRS) and U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (2014) Climate change: evidence and causes. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Vose RS, Applequist S, Menne MJ, Williams CN Jr, Thorne P (2012) An intercomparison of temperature trends in the US historical climatology network and recent atmospheric reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett 39, L10703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051387
Vose RS et al (2014) Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: extratropical storms, winds, and waves. Bull Am Meteor Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1
Wuebbles DJ et al (2014a) CMIP5 climate model analyses: climate extremes in the United States. Am Meteorol Soc, Bullet. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1
Wuebbles DJ, Kunkel K, Wehner M, Zobel Z (2014b) Severe weather in the United States under a changing climate. EOS 95:149–150. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO180001
Yamamoto-Kawai M, McLaughlin FA, Carmack EC, Nishino S, Shimada K (2009) Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt. Science 326:1098–1100. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1174190
Yin J (2012) Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39:L17709. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052947
Zwiers F, Alexander L, Hegerl G, Knutson T, Kossin J, Naveau P, Nicholls N, Schaar C, Seneviratne S, Zhang X (2013) Climate extremes: challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. In: Asrar G, Hurrell J (eds) Climate science for serving society. Springer, Netherlands, pp 339–389
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Wuebbles, D.J. (2018). Climate Change in the 21st Century: Looking Beyond the Paris Agreement. In: Murphy, C., Gardoni, P., McKim, R. (eds) Climate Change and Its Impacts. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77544-9_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77544-9_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-77543-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-77544-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)