A Summary of the Argument to Date and of How It Will Develop Regarding Events in 2005–2010

Abstract

This chapter summarizes the argument to date and how it will develop regarding 2005–2010. Putin removes key Yeltsin-era figures, arrests the politically ambitious oil oligarch Khodorkovsky, and shifts towards a state-dominated and partly state-run economy. The siloviki are encouraged and support Putin. But from Putin’s viewpoint they also become a potential limitation on his power. So he takes preemptive action. Deliberately but silently, he promotes the creation of two main factions, and, in the same way, creates conflicts between them. This leads to a barely concealed war. They make secret reports to Putin against each other. The war is most intensive in 2003–2004 and 2006–2007. Thus Putin becomes the uniquely qualified balancer and mediator, and is essential to the functioning of the whole oligarchy. Together with lesser conflicts of similar type, the silovik war and Putin’s role constitute the essence of the political-economic system.