Abstract
Examining US policy toward Taiwan-China relations since the mid-1990s, this chapter explains why recently rising tensions in cross-Strait relations and hardening of the Obama administration’s approach to China did not spill over to change US policy toward Taiwan. It goes on to assess the impact of the US 2015–2016 presidential election debates and its implications for US policy on China and Taiwan in the Donald Trump government.
By Robert Sutter, Professor of Practice of International Affairs, George Washington University. The author is grateful for the constructive comments received when this chapter was presented on a panel at a conference entitled “Taiwan in the Realm of East Asia,” Wake Forest University, October 22, 2016.
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Notes
- 1.
For relevant overviews, see Steven M. Goldstein, China and Taiwan (Polity 2015); Richard Bush, Untying the Knot (Brookings 2005); Richard Bush, Unchartered Strait (Brookings 2013); US Congress, House Foreign Affairs Committee, “Subcommittee Hearing: The Future of U.S.-Taiwan Relations,” Feb 11, 2016 (Statements of R. Schriver, B. Glaser and S. Rigger), https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-the-future-of-u-s-taiwan-relations/; recent developments are reviewed triannually in David Brown “China-Taiwan Relations,” Comparative Connectionshttp://cc.csis.org/, and in articles by Alan Romberg in Chinese Leadership Monitorhttp://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor.
- 2.
In addition to the sources in note 44, see Bonnie Glaser, Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations as Tsai Ing-wen assumes the Presidency in Taiwan (CSIS April 2016); Shelley Rigger, Why Taiwan Matters, updated ed. (Rowman and Littlefield 2014); Russell Hsiao, “U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Hobson’s Choice and the False Dilemma,” Strategic Asia 2014–2015 (National Bureau of Asian Research 2014): 256–287; Brantly Womack and Yufan Hao, Rethinking the Triangle: Washington-Beijing-Taipei (World Scientific 2016); Yun-han Chu et al., Taiwan’s Democracy Challenged: The Chen Shui-bian Years (Lynne Rienner 2016); Robert Sutter, U.S.-Chinese Relations (Rowman & Littlefield 2013): 229–248.
- 3.
Harry Harding, “Has U.S. China Policy Failed?” The Washington Quarterly 38, no. 3 (2015): 95–122.
- 4.
This review is taken from Robert Sutter, “Taiwan’s Elections, China’s Response and America’s Policy,” The Diplomat Magazine, February 1, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/taiwans-elections-chinas-response-and-americas-policy/; See also Robert Sutter, U.S.-Chinese Relations (2013).
- 5.
David Michael Lampton, “A Tipping Point in U.S.-China Relations is Upon Us,” US-China Perception Monitor, May 11, 2015; Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, Council Special Report: Revising U.S. Grand Strategy toward China (Washington, DC: Council on Foreign Relations, April 2015); Orville Schell and Susan Shirk, Chairs, US Policy toward China: Recommendations for a new administration (New York: Asia Society, 2017).
- 6.
Robert Sutter, “Obama’s Cautious and Calibrated Approach to an Assertive China,” YaleGlobal (2016), http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/obamas-cautious-and-calibrated-approach-assertive-china; Jeffrey Bader, A Framework for U.S. Policy Toward China (Brookings March 2016); Deputy Secretary Blinken Testimony on U.S.-China Relations: Strategic Challenges and Opportunities, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, April 27, 2016.
- 7.
“ZTE to pay massive U.S. fine over Iran, North Korea,” EURONEWS, March 7, 2017 http://www.euronews.com/2017/03/07/china-s-zte-to-pay-massive-us-fine-over-iran-north-korea-sanctions-busting.
- 8.
Author consultations with U.S. administration officials, Washington, DC, August, 2016 and January, 2017.
- 9.
Anna Fifield, Robin Kwong and Katherin Hille, “US Concerned about Taiwan Candidate,” Financial Times September 15, 2011 https://www.ft.com/content/f926fd14-df93-11e0-845a-00144feabdc0?mhq5j=e1.
- 10.
These differing approaches are seen in these and among others: Richard C. Bush III, “Cross-Strait relations: Not a one-way street,” Brookings Institution, April 22, 2016, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/04/22-cross-strtait-relations-bush; Mark Stokes and Sabrina Tsai, “The United States and Future Policy Options in the Taiwan Strait,” Project 2049, February 1, 2016, http://www.project2049.net/documents/Future_US%20Policy%20Options%20in%20the%20Taiwan%20Strait_Project%202049.pdf; T.X. Hammes, “Strategy for an Unthinkable Conflict,” The Diplomat, July 27, 2012, http://thediplomat.com/2012/07/military-strategy-for-an-unthinkable-conflict/; John Bolton, “China-Taiwan tensions are rising,” John Bolton PAC, April 25, 2016, http://www.boltonpac.com/2016/04/bolton-china-taiwan-tensions-rising-obama-responds-critical/; William Lowther, “US presidential candidate pledges to defend Taiwan,” The Taipei Times, January 9, 2016, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/01/09/2003636798.
- 11.
See among others, Leon Hadar, “Obama’s West Point Realism, The American Conservative, May 30, 2014, http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/obamas-west-point-realism/.
- 12.
Mark E. Manyin et al., Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” toward Asia, Report 42448 (Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, March 28, 2012); Robert Sutter, Michael Brown, and Timothy Adamson, Balancing Acts: The U.S. Rebalance and Asia Pacific Stability (Washington, DC: George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs, 2013); Timothy Adamson, Michael Brown, and Robert Sutter, Rebooting the U.S. Rebalance to Asia (Washington, DC: George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs, 2014); Hugo Meijer, ed., Origins and Evolution of the U.S. Rebalance toward Asia: Diplomatic, Military and Economic Dimensions (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015); Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (New York: Twelve: The Hachette Group, 2016.
- 13.
Walter Lohman, Top Five Political-Security Priorities for the Asia-Pacific in 2016 (Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation, February 5, 2016).
- 14.
This section is adapted from Robert Sutter and Satu Limaye Washington Asia Policy Debates: Impact of 2015–2016 Presidential Campaign and Asian Reactions, East-West Center (Washington September 2016). The principal findings and US policy implications of this report are based on the author’s assessment of campaign statements and other materials made available in the East-West Center Washington 2016 Presidential Candidates on Asia, http://www.asiamattersforamerica.org/asia/2016-presidential-candidates-on-asia; other news and commentary as well as interviews and discussions with senior Republican and Democratic Asian specialists conducted in Washington, DC, during June 2016 and with Asian specialists, commentators, and officials in Beijing, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington, DC, during July 2016.
- 15.
“Issues: National Security: With policies that keep us strong and safe, America can lead the world in the 21st century,” Hillary for Americahttps://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/national-security, accessed June 10, 2016.
- 16.
“Hillary Clinton Addresses The Iran Nuclear Deal,” presentation at The Brookings Institution (Washington, DC, September 9, 2015),.http://www.brookings.edu/events/2015/09/09-clinton-iran-nuclear-deal, accessed July, 5 2016.
- 17.
“Defend Our Nation,” Cruz for President,https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/defend-our-nation, accessed June 20, 2016.
- 18.
“Issues: War and Peace,” Bernie 2016,https://berniesanders.com/issues/war-and-peace/, accessed June 10, 2016; “Bernie Sanders: On Trade,” Council on Foreign Relations, Campaign 2016: The Candidates & The World,http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/bernie-sanders/on-trade,accessed June 10, 2016.
- 19.
“‘America First’ Foreign Policy Speech,” Washington, DC, April 27, 2016 http://time.com/4309786/read-donald-trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-speech, accessed July 5, 2016.
- 20.
Sutter and Limaye Washington Asia Policy Debates: Impact of 2015–2016 Presidential Campaign and Asian Reactions.
- 21.
Harding, “Has U.S. China Policy Failed?” (2015).
- 22.
Sutter, “Obama’s Cautious and Calibrated Approach to an Assertive China,” (2016).
- 23.
Jeffery M. Jones, “Americans See China’s Economic Power as Diminished Threat,” Gallup, February 26, 2015, http://www.gallup.com/poll/181733/americans-china-economic-power-diminished-threat.aspx; Saad, “Americans See China as Top Economy Now, but U.S. in Future.” Lydia Saad, “Americans See China as Top Economy Now, but U.S. in Future.” Gallup. February 22, 2016. http://www.gallup.com/poll/189347/americans-china-top-economy-future.aspx.
- 24.
Hillary Clinton, “Issues: National Security: With policies that keep us strong and safe, America can lead the world in the 21st century,” Hillary for America.
- 25.
Hillary Clinton, “Campaign Rally in New Hampshire,” campaign speech in New Hampshire (June 5, 2015), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33399711.
- 26.
Hillary Clinton, “Remarks to AFL-CIO,” AFL-CIO Convention in Philadelphia, PA, (April 6, 2016).
- 27.
Bernie Sanders, interview by Ezra Klein, Vox, July 28, 2015, http://www.vox.com/2015/7/28/9014491/bernie-sanders-vox-conversation.
- 28.
Council on Foreign Relations, “Ted Cruz: On China,” Campaign 2016: The Candidates & The World, http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/ted-cruz/on-china.
- 29.
John Kasich, “A Conversation With John Kasich,” (Council of Foreign Relations, Washington, DC, December 9, 2015) http://www.cfr.org/united-states/conversation-john-kasich/p37304; John Kasich, “Republican Presidential Debate in Miami, Florida,” Televised Broadcast, CNN, March 10, 2016, http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/10/politics/republican-debate-transcript-full-text/index.html.
- 30.
Marco Rubio, “How My Presidency Would Deal With China,” The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-my-presidency-would-deal-with-china-1440717685.
- 31.
Maggie Haberman, “Donald Trump Says He Favors Big Tariffs on Chinese Exports,” New York Times, January 7, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/07/donald-trump-says-he-favors-big-tariffs-on-chinese-exports/; Donald Trump, “‘America First’ Foreign Policy Speech,” Washington, DC, April 27, 2016.
- 32.
Ronald O’Rourke, “Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, May 31, 2016, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42784.pdf.
- 33.
“Parties Should Accept South China Sea Decision: Donald Trump’s Adviser,” India Express, July 13, 2016.
- 34.
Hillary Clinton, “Democratic Presidential Debate in Des Moines, Iowa,” Televised Broadcast, CBS, November 15, 2015; Hillary Clinton, interview by ABS-CBN, ABS-CBN News North America, February 24, 2016, http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/02/23/16/clinton-backs-ph-moves-in-sea-dispute-with-china.
- 35.
John Kasich, “A Comprehensive Outline For American Security In A Chaotic World,” Kasich for America.
- 36.
Bernie Sanders, interview with Brooklyn Daily Eagle, Brooklyn Daily Eagle, April 19, 2016, http://www.brooklyneagle.com/articles/2016/4/19/exclusive-qa-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-brooklyn-national-issues.
- 37.
Donald Trump, “Presidential Campaign Announcement,” (New York, New York, June 16, 2015) http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/06/16/donald-trump-transcript-our-country-needs-a-truly-great-leader/.
- 38.
Robert Sutter, “The Taiwan elections: Don’t expect a US policy change,” The Interpreter, January 20, 2016,
- 39.
William Lowther, “US presidential candidate pledges to defend Taiwan,” The Taipei Times, January 9, 2016, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/01/09/2003636798.
- 40.
Ten Cruz, “Sen. Cruz: Taiwan Is Exemplar of Liberty and Best Hope for Peace in East Asia,” Senate Office of Ted Cruz, January 16, 2016, https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=2576.
- 41.
William Lowther, “Tsai has ‘very successful’ US meetings,” The Taipei Times, June 4, 2015, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2015/06/04/2003619870.
- 42.
Peter Navarro, “America Can’t Dump Taiwan,” The National Interest, July 19, 2016 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-cant-dump-taiwan-17040, accessed July 29, 2016.
- 43.
William Lowther, “Clinton would not change US’ Taiwan policy: aide,” Taipei Times, July 27, 2016, 3.
- 44.
Bonnie Glaser and Alexandra Viers, “U.S.-China Relations,” Comparative Connections, 18, no. 3, January 2017:21–22.
- 45.
David Brown and Kevin Scott, “China-Taiwan Relations, “Comparative Connections Vol. 19, No. 1 (May 2017): pp. 62–63.
- 46.
Shi Jiangtao, “US doubts over one-China linchpin to stalk Sino-US security talks,” South China Morning Post June 16, 2017 p. 1; Mark Landler, “Trump takes more aggressive stance with U.S. friend and foes in Asia,” New York Times June 30, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/world/asia/trump-south-korea-china.html.
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Sutter, R. (2019). American Policy Toward Taiwan-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century. In: Lee, Wc. (eds) Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges. Politics and Development of Contemporary China. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77125-0_9
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