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Demography and Health Issues pp 71–82Cite as

A Method for the Forecasting of Mortality

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Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 46))

Abstract

In population projections the problem of the estimation of future mortality trends is of central importance. In this paper a new method serving this purpose is applied. After assuming the probabilities of death for large age groups ( n q x ), a relational technique is applied for the estimation of one-year death probabilities ( 1 q x ) of a full life table as proposed by Kostaki (Math Popul Stud 9(1):83–95, 2000). Afterwards, a smoothing procedure of the 1 q x values is used, based on a 9 parameters relational model originally developed by Heligman and Pollard (J Inst Actuar 107:47–80, 1980) and later on modified by Kostaki (Math Popul Stud 3(4):277–288, 1992) in combination with three subsequent cubic splines. After the age of 84 years the probabilities of death were extrapolated on the basis of the parameters of the last spline used. Results of the analysis indicate that the method applied was on one hand very effective and on the other quite parsimonious in terms of calculations, property which further enhances its applicability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of P. Anthropology, Department of History and Ethnology, Democritus University of Thrace, P. Tsaldari 1, Komotini, 69100, Rhodopi, Greece

    Konstantinos N. Zafeiris

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  1. Konstantinos N. Zafeiris
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Correspondence to Konstantinos N. Zafeiris .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. ManLab, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete, Greece

    Christos H. Skiadas

  2. Department of Mathematics/Computer Science, Hanover College, Hanover, Indiana, USA

    Charilaos Skiadas

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Zafeiris, K.N. (2018). A Method for the Forecasting of Mortality. In: Skiadas, C., Skiadas, C. (eds) Demography and Health Issues. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 46. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_7

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