Abstract
The second variable or, better, set of variables that this study analyzes to explain the outcomes of autonomization versus securitization are international factors. This chapter first introduces the theoretical background to these variables, applying them to the two case studies and arguing that international factors are important for domestic policies. This is done by developing three subhypotheses: one related to geopolitical issues, one concerned with the impact of the international community (intended as governmental or nongovernmental actors), and one with the impact of the minority diaspora. After that, the chapter analyzes the case studies in detail to assess where there is evidence for the subhypotheses. The conclusion is that for Indonesia the nongovernmental international community had the greatest impact on the state’s decisions to go from securitization to autonomization. By contrast, both geopolitical factors and the international community of governments were important for securitization in Turkey.
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Notes
- 1.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable (New York: Random House, 2007).
- 2.
Hamit Bozarslan, “Kurds and the Turkish State,” in The Cambridge History of Turkey, Volume 4: Turkey in the Modern World, Reşat Kasaba (ed.) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
- 3.
Oded Haklai, “Regime transition and the emergence of ethnic democracies,” Ch. 2 in Jacques Bertrand and Oded Haklai (eds.) Democratization and Ethnic Minorities: Conflict or Compromise? (Abingdon: Routledge, 2014).
- 4.
Judith Kelley, Ethnic politics in Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004). See also “EU enlargements and minority rights.” JEMIE: Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe n. 1 (2003).
- 5.
Zsuzsa Csergo, Talk of the nation: Language and conflict in Romania and Slovakia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2007).
- 6.
Olivier Grojean, “Bringing the organization back in: Pro-Kurdish protest in Europe,” in Marlies Casier and Joost Jongerden (ed.) Nationalism and politics in Turkey (London: Routledge, 2011).
- 7.
Antje Missbach, Separatist Conflict in Indonesia: The Long Distance Politics of the Acehnese in Diaspora (New York: Routledge, 2012).
- 8.
Tol Gönül, “Syria’s Kurdish Challenge to Turkey,” Middle East Institute, August 29, 2012, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.mei.edu/content/syrias-kurdish-challenge-turkey.
- 9.
Michael Gunter, “Unrecognized De Facto States in World Politics: The Kurds,” Brown Journal of World Affairs 20(2) (2014): 161–178.
- 10.
After the KRG referendum on independence in September 2017, Turkey even threatened a military invasion, or at least economic sanctions and border closure if the independence threatened Turkish security. “The Latest: UN says Kurdish vote could be ‘destabilizing,’” Washington Post, September 25, 2017, accessed September 30, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-latest-turkey-says-it-rejects-iraqi-kurds-referendum/2017/09/25/d8d37a46-a1bc-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html?utm_term=.4905960da7e2.
At the time of this book’s editing, things are still moving.
- 11.
Kareem Fahim and Karam Shoumali, “Turkey to let Iraqi Kurds Cross to Syria to Fight ISIS,” New York Times, October 20, 2014, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/middleeast/kobani-turkey-kurdish-fighters-syria.html.
- 12.
“Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process,” International Crisis Group Europe Report No. 234, November 6, 2014, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/turkey/234-turkey-and-the-pkk-saving-the-peace-process.aspx.
- 13.
Ben Hubbard and Maher Samaan, “Kurds and Syrian Rebels Storm ISIS-Held Border Town,” New York Times, June 16, 2015, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/world/middleeast/kurds-and-syrian-rebels-push-to-evict-isis-from-border-town.html.
- 14.
M. Hakan Yavuz and Nihat Ali Özcan, “Turkish Democracy and the Kurdish Question,” Middle East Policy, Volume 22, Issue 4 (Winter 2015) 73–87.
- 15.
Jamie Dettmer, “Turkey Warns US About Kurdish Advances in Syria,” Voice of America, June 22, 2015, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-warns-us-about-kurdish-advances-in-syria/2832298.html.
- 16.
Yavuz and Özcan, Turkish Democracy and the Kurdish Question, p. 80.
- 17.
Ibid., p. 73.
- 18.
Sarah Almuhtar and Tim Wallice, “Why Turkey is Fighting the Kurds Who Are Fighting ISIS,” New York Times, August 12, 2015, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/08/12/world/middleeast/turkey-kurds isis.html.
- 19.
Akin Unver, Turkey’s policy towards ISIS, Wikistrat Crowdsourced Consulting, April, 2016.
- 20.
“UNHCR Syria Regional Refugee Response—Turkey,” data from UNHCR, accessed September 30, 2017, http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=224.
- 21.
“EU-Turkey Agreement: Questions and Answers,” European Commission, March 19, 2016, accessed September 30, 2017, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-963_en.htm.
- 22.
BBC, “Jordan’s King Abdullah criticizes regional leaders,” March 19, 2013, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-21844349.
- 23.
Sener Akturk, 2012, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey (New York: Cambridge University Press): 175–92.
Kemal Kirişci, The Kurdish Question and Turkish Foreign Policy, in Lenore G. Martin and Dimitris Keridis, eds., The Future of Turkish Foreign Policy (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2004): 277–314.
- 24.
Kirişci, p. 279.
- 25.
Özlem Pusane, “Turkey’s Kurdish Opening: Long Awaited Achievements and Failed Expectations,” Turkish Studies 15(1): 81–99, 2014, p. 85.
- 26.
BBC, “Turkey approves amnesty for Kurds,” July 29, 2003, accessed September 30, 2017, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3108539.stm.
- 27.
David Romano, “The long road toward Kurdish accommodation in Turkey: The role of elections and international pressures,” Ch. 9 in Jacques Bertrand and Oded Haklai (eds.) Democratization and Ethnic Minorities: Conflict or Compromise? (Abingdon: Routledge, 2014): 175–176.
- 28.
Ibid., pp. 176–177.
- 29.
Özlem Pusane, “Turkey’s Kurdish Opening: Long Awaited Achievements and Failed Expectations,” Turkish Studies 15(1) (2014): 81–99.
- 30.
Tol Gönül, “Kurdish Consensus at Home Can Serve Turkey Abroad,” Middle East Institute, February 9, 2012, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.mei.edu/content/kurdish-consensus-home-can-serve-ankara-abroad.
- 31.
George Kyris, “The European Union and Cyprus: The Awkward Partnership,” EurActiv, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/opinion/the-european-union-and-cyprus-the-awkward-partnership/.
- 32.
The Annan Plan for Cyprus was a UN proposal to resolve the Cyprus issue with a federation of two states. Turkish Cypriot accepted it with 65 percent of votes in the referendum, but 76 percent of Greek Cypriots rejected it.
- 33.
Actually the EU-safeguarded accession was one of the reasons why Greek Cypriots rejected the UN plan. Thus, the earlier good intentions of the EU had an opposite effect to the intended one. See again Kyris, “The European Union and Cyprus: The Awkward Partnership”.
- 34.
Barbara Tasch, “One of the smallest countries in Europe is standing in the way of a massive migrant deal between the EU and Turkey—here’s why,” March 17, 2016, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/eu-turkey-deal-could-fail-because-of-cyprus-2016-3?r=UK&IR=T.
- 35.
“European Neighborhood Policy and enlargement negotiations—Turkey,” European Commission, Membership Status, accessed September 30, 2017, http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/detailed-country-information/turkey/index_en.htm.
- 36.
“In shift, Merkel backs end to EU-Turkey membership talks,” Reuters, September 3, 2017, accessed September 30, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-merkel/in-shift-merkel-backs-end-to-eu-turkey-membership-talks-idUSKCN1BE15B.
- 37.
The Kurdish Diaspora, Foundation Institute Kurd de Paris, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.institutkurde.org/en/kurdorama/.
- 38.
Grojean, Bringing the Organization back in: Pro-Kurdish Protest in Europe, 2011.
- 39.
Lenka Berkowitz and Liza M. Mügge, Transnational Diaspora Lobbying: Europeanization and the Kurdish Question, Journal of Intercultural Studies, Volume 35, Issue 1 (2014): 74–90.
- 40.
Ihsan Kurt, “Kurdish Diaspora Cannot Be Ignored,” Al Monitor, March 25, 2013, accessed September 30, 2017, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/03/kurdish-diaspora-cannot-be-ignored.html.
- 41.
Ibid.
- 42.
Olle Törnquist, “Dynamics of peace and democratization. The Aceh lessons,” Democratization, 18(3), s 823–846.
- 43.
International Crisis Group. Aceh: A New Chance for Peace, Asia Briefing 40, Jakarta and Brussels: ICG, August 15, 2005, p. 1.
- 44.
Kristian Stokke, Olle Törnquist, Gyda Marås Syndre, “Conflict Resolution and Democratization in the aftermath of the 2004 Tsunami: A Comparative Analysis of Aceh and Sri Lanka,” Power, Conflict and Democracy in South & Southeast Asia, 1(1–2), (2009): 129–149.
- 45.
Edward Aspinall, “The Helsinki Agreement: A More Promising Basis for Peace in Aceh?,” Policy Studies 20, Washington, DC: East-West Center, 2005.
- 46.
For the Yudhoyono presidency, for example, scholars argue that he was famous for his lack of resolution, even if the Aceh autonomy arrived exactly under his presidency. See on this Greg Fealy, “The politics of Yudhoyono, majoritarian democracy, insecurity and vanity,” in The Yudhoyono presidency: Indonesia’s decade of stability and stagnation, ed. Edward Aspinall (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian studies, 2015), 35–54.
- 47.
“Aceh initiative. Internal Review,” Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, Geneva, November 2003, p. 37.
- 48.
Sumanto Al Qurtuby, “Interethnic Violence, Separatism and Political Reconciliation in Turkey and Indonesia,” India Quarterly 71(2) (6/2015): 126–145.
- 49.
Nara Rakhmatia, ASEAN as Regional Mechanism in Aceh Peace Process: Constructivist View on the Norm of ‘ASEAN Way’, Academia.edu, open access source, accessed September 30, 2017, https://www.academia.edu/3263062/ASEAN_as_Regional_Mechanism_in_Aceh_Peace_Process_Constructivist_View_on_the_Norm_of_ASEAN_Way_.
- 50.
Suryadinata, Leo, The making of Southeast Asian Nations. State, ethnicity, indigenism and citizenship (Singapore: World Scientific, 2015) p. 147/150.
- 51.
“Aceh initiative. Internal Review,” Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, Geneva, November 2003, p. 37.
- 52.
Konrad Huber, “Reconfiguring politics: The Indonesia-Aceh peace process,” Conciliation Resources, Accord issue: 20, 2008, accesses May 21, 2016, http://www.c-r.org/accord/aceh-indonesia/acehs-arduous-journey-peace.
- 53.
Olle Törnquist, “Dynamics of peace and democratization. The Aceh lessons,” 2010, p. 834.
- 54.
This was also because the Turkish government does not accept any external comment on its domestic affairs. National leadership and the role of agency therefore should be analyzed, too, in future research, to understand the systemic impact of international factors.
- 55.
Eva-Lotta E. Hedman, “Aceh Under Martial Law: Conflict, Violence and Displacement,” RSC Working Paper, No. 24, July 2005, Oxford: University of Oxford Refugee Studies Centre, p. 48.
- 56.
Olle Törnquist, “Dynamics of peace and democratization. The Aceh lessons,” 2011.
- 57.
Robert Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” International Organization, 42 (1988): 427–460.
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Geri, M. (2018). International Factors: Geopolitical Issues, International Community, and Diaspora. In: Ethnic Minorities in Democratizing Muslim Countries. Minorities in West Asia and North Africa. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75574-8_6
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