Abstract
Numerical models are essential tools to address many environmental issues including inundation, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Scientists and engineers are continuing to develop models to simulate and forecast events of various space and time scales. New computational and networking capabilities are key to developing coupled models that will provide users with accurate environmental information, including uncertainty and probabilities. Increasing computing power allows a similar increase of spatial and temporal resolutions in coastal ocean models. Multidisciplinary and integrated modeling projects are improving our understanding of the interactions between physical and biogeochemical and biological phenomena. Model verification and validation is an essential component in producing accurate and credible models that highlight how ocean processes are shaping modern coastlines.
It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.
—Henri Poincaré, 1913, The Foundations of Science
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allard, Richard, Erick Rogers, Paul Martin, Tommy Jensen, Philip Chu, Tim Campbell, James Dykes, Travis Smith, Jeikook Chu, and Uriah Gravois. 2014. The US navy coupled ocean-wave prediction system. Oceanography 27 (3): 92–103.
Baretta, J.W., W. Ebenhöh, and P. Ruardij. 1995. The European regional seas ecosytem model, a complex ecosystem model. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research 33 (3–4): 233–246.
Baschek, Burkard, and Jennifer Imai. 2011. Rogue wave observations off the US west coast. Oceanography 24 (2): 158–165.
Baskett, Marissa L., Fiorenza Micheli, and Simon A. Levin. 2007. Designing marine reserves for interacting species: Insights from theory. Biological Conservation 137: 163–179.
Begley, J., and D. Howell. 2004. An overview of gadget, the globally applicable area-disaggregated general ecosystem toolbox, 15. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Document CM 2004/FF: 13.
Cardone, V.J., R.E. Jenson, D.T. Resio, V.R. Swail, and A.T. Cox. 1996. Evaluation of contemporary ocean wave models in rare extreme events: The “Halloween storm” of October 1991 and the “storm of the century” of March 1993. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 13: 198–230.
Cavaleri, Luigi. 2006. Wave modeling: Where to go in the future. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87 (2): 207–214.
Chassignet, Eric P., and Jacques Verron, (eds.). 2006. Ocean weather forecasting: An integrated view of oceanography, 577. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
Chen, S., J. Cummings, J. Doyle, R.H. Hodur, T. Holt, C. Liou, M. Liu, A. Mirin, J. Ridout, J.M. Schmidt, G. Sugiyama, and W.T. Thompson. 2003. COAMPS™ version 3 model description—General theory and equations, 148. NRL Publication NRL/PU/7500–03-448, May 2003, Monterey, CA: Naval Research Laboratory.
Christensen, V., and D. Pauly. 1992. ECOPATH II—A software for balancing steady-state ecosystem models and calculating network characteristics. Ecolological Modelling 61 (3–4): 169–185.
Constable, A.J. 2005. Implementing plausible ecosystem models for the Southern Ocean an ecosystem, productivity, ocean, climate (EPOC) model, 20. Workshop document presented to WG-EMM subgroup of CCAMLR (Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources), WG-EMM-05/33.
Constable, A.J. 2006. Using the EPOC modelling framework to assess management procedures for Antarctic krill in Statistical Area 48: Evaluating spatial differences in productivity of Antarctic krill. Workshop document presented to WG-EMM subgroup of CCAMLR (Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources), WG-EMM-06/38.
Cousins, Will, and Themistoklis P. Sapsis. 2016. Reduced-order precursors of rare events in unidirectional nonlinear water waves. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 790: 368–388.
Deltares. 2014. Delft3D-flow, simulation of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic flows and transport phenomena, including sediments, User manual, 684. Version 3.15.34158, May 2014.
Deltares. 2015. Delft3D flexible mesh suite, D-flow FM in delta shell, user manual, 376. Version 1.1.148, November 2015.
Devia, Gayathri K., B.P. Ganasri, and G.S. Dwarakish. 2015. A review of hydrological models. Aquatic Procedia 4: 1001–1007.
DHI. 2014. MIKE 21 flow model FM hydrodynamic module, user manual, 134. August 2014.
Fox-Lent, Cate, Matthew E. Bates, and Igor Linkov. 2015. A matrix approach to community resilience assessment: An illustrative case at rockaway peninsula. Environment Systems and Decisions. 35 (2): 209–218.
Fulton, Elizabeth A., Anthony D.M. Smith, and Craig R. Johnson. 2004a. Biogeochemical marine ecosystem models I: IGBEM—A model of marine bay ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 174 (3): 267–307.
Fulton, Elizabeth. A., Anthony D.M. Smith, and André E. Punt. 2004b. Ecological indicators of the ecosystem effects of fishing: Final report. Report No. R99/1546, Canberra: Australian Fisheries Management Authority.
Fulton, Elizabeth A., Anthony D.M. Smith, and André E. Punt. 2005. Which ecological indicators can robustly detect effects of fishing? ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 (3): 540–551.
Glahn, Bob, Arthur Taylor, Nicole Kurkowski, and Wilson A. Shaffer. 2009. The role of the SLOSH model in national weather service storm surge forecasting. National Weather Digest 33 (1): 3–14.
Heymans, Johanna Jacomina, Marta Coll, Jason S. Link, Steven Mackinson, Jeroen Steenbeek, Carl Walters, and Villy Christensen. 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling 331: 173–184.
Hollowed, Anne B., Nicholas Bax, Richard Beamish, Jeremy Collie, Michael Fogarty, Patricia Livingston, John Pope, and Jake C. Rice. 2000. Are multispecies models an improvement on single-species models for measuring fishing impacts on marine ecosystems? ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 707–719.
Huang, Yong, Robert H. Weisberg, Lianyuan Zheng, and Marcel Zijlema. 2013. Gulf of Mexico hurricane wave simulations using SWAN: Bulk formula-based drag coefficient sensitivity for Hurricane Ike. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 118 (8): 3916–3938.
Link, J.S., E.A. Fulton, and R.J. Gamble. 2010. The northeast US application of ATLANTIS: A full system model exploring marine ecosystem dynamics in a living marine resource management context. Progress in Oceanography 87 (1–4): 214–234.
Luettich, R.A., and J.J. Westerink. 1991. A solution for the vertical variation of stress, rather than velocity, in a three-dimensional circulation model. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids 12: 911–928.
Martin P.J. 2000. A description of the navy coastal ocean model version 1.0, 42. NRL Report NRL/FR/7322-00-9962, Stennis Space Center, MS: Naval Research Laboratory.
McDonald, A.D., L. Richard Little, R. Gray, Elizabth Fulton, K.J. Sainsbury, and Vincent D. Lyne. 2006. Multiple use management strategy evaluation for coastal marine ecosytems using invitro. In Complex science for a complex world, ed. Pascal Perez, and David F. Batten, 2588–2594. Canberra: ANU E Press.
Neumann, T. 2000. Towards a 3D-ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 25 (3–4): 405–419.
Neumann, T., W. Fennel, and C. Kremp. 2002. Experimental simulations with an ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea: A nutrient load reduction experiment. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16 (3): 7–1–7-19.
Onorato, M., S. Residori, U. Bortolozzo, A. Montina, and F. Arecchi. 2013. Rogue waves and their generating mechanisms in different physical contexts. Physics Reports 528 (2): 47–89.
Pauly, D., V. Christensen, and C. Walters. 2000. Ecopath, ecosim, and ecospace as tools for evaluating ecosystem impact of fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57 (3): 697–706.
Resio, D.T., L. Vincent, and D. Ardag. 2017. Characteristics of directional wave spectra and implications for detailed-balance wave modeling. Ocean Modelling 103: 38–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.09.009.
Rosati, J.D., K.F. Touzinsky, and W.J. Lillycrop. 2015. Quantifying coastal system resilience for the USACE. Environment Systems and Decisions 35 (2): 196–208.
Sekine, Masahiko, Hiroshi Nakanishi, and Masao Ukita. 1991. A shallow-sea ecological model using an object-oriented programming language. Ecological Modelling 57 (3–4): 221–236.
Shchepetkin, Alexander F., and James C. McWilliams. 2005. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): A split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modelling 9 (4): 347–404.
Shin, Yunne-Jai, and Philippe Cury. 2001. Exploring fish community dynamics through size-dependent trophic interactions using a spatialized individual-based model. Aquatic Living Resources 14 (2): 65–80.
Shin, Yunne-Jae, and Philippe Cury. 2004. Using an individual-based model of fish assemblages to study the response of size spectra to changes in fishing. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 61 (3): 414–431.
Smit, Pieter, Tim Janssen, Cameron Dunning, and Wheeler Gans. 2017. Real-time wave assimilation using low-cost sensor arrays. In Proceedings of the ocean waves workshop, ed. C.R. Nichols, 7 Dec 2017. New Orleans, LA: University of New Orleans. Available online. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=oceanwaves. Accessed 23 Jan 2018.
The WISE Group, L. Cavaleria, J.-H. G.M. Alves, F. Ardhuin, A. Babanin, M. Banner, K. Belibassakis, M. Benoit, M. Donelan, J. Groeneweg, T.H.C. Herbers, P. Hwang, P.A.E.M. Janssen, T. Janssen, I.V. Lavrenov, R. Magne, J. Monbaliu, M. Onorato, V. Polnikov, D. Resio, W.E. Rogers, A. Sheremet, J. McKee Smith, H.L. Tolman, G. van Vledder, J. Wolf, and I. Young. 2007. Progress in Oceanography 75 (4): 603–674.
Tjelmeland, Sigurd, and U. Ulf Lindstrøm. 2005. An ecosystem element added to the assessment of Norwegian spring spawning herring: Implementing predation by Minke Whales. ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 (2): 285–294.
Tschirhart, John. 2000. General equilibrium of an ecosystem. Journal of Theoretical Biology 203 (1): 13–32.
van der Wiel, Karin, Sarah B. Kapnick, Geert Jan, Kirien van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip Whan, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Roop K. Singh, Julie Arrighi, and Heidi Cullen. 2017. Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in South Louisiana to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Science 21: 897–921.
Vincenot, C.E., S. Mazzoleni, and L. Parrott. 2016. Editorial: Hybrid solutions for the modeling of complex environmental systems. Frontiers in Environmental Science 4: 53. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2016.00053.
Walters, C., D. Pauly, and V. Christensen. 1999. Ecospace: Prediction of mesoscale spatial patterns in trophic relationships of exploited ecosystems, with emphasis on the impacts of marine protected areas. Ecosystems 2 (6): 539–554.
Wendisch, M., et al. 2017. Understanding causes and effects of rapid warming in the Arctic. Eos 98. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO064803.
Werner, F.E., R.K. Cowen, and C.B. Paris. 2007. Coupled biological and physical models: Present capabilities and necessary developments for future studies of population connectivity. Oceanography 20 (3): 54–69.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Resio, D.T., Nichols, C.R. (2019). Next Generation Numerical Models to Address a Complex Future. In: Wright, L., Nichols, C. (eds) Tomorrow's Coasts: Complex and Impermanent. Coastal Research Library, vol 27. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75453-6_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75453-6_17
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-75452-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-75453-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)