Communicating Climate Information: Traveling Through the Decision-Making Process

Abstract

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This chapter explores the nature and consequences of (a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts and (b) changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analyzing observatories; the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e., climate models and data) , climate change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesized in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample, information on uncertainty is underrepresented: e.g., studies focus on only one scenario and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. While climatologists need better training in communication issues, decision-makers also need training in climatology to adopt more cautious and robust adaptation strategies that account for the uncertainty inherent in climate projections.

Appendix 1

Table of sampled documents

Doc	Code	Full title
1	Belgium.as	Belgian National Climate Commission, 2010. Belgian national climate change adaptation strategy
2	Danmark.as	The Danish government, 2008. Danish strategy for adaptation to a changing climate
3	Finland.as	Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland 2005. Finland’s national strategy for adaptation to climate change
4	Germany.as	The Federal Government 2008. German strategy for adaptation to climate change
5	Iceland.as	Iceland’s ministry for the environment, 2007. Iceland’s climate change strategy
6	Ireland.as	Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, 2007. Ireland national climate change strategy 2007–2012
7	Spain.as	Spanish ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs, 2008. The Spanish national climate change adaptation plan
8	Wales.as	Welsh Ministry of Environment, 2010. Climate change strategy for Wales
9	NL.as	Ministeries van VROM, V&W, LNV, EZ, IPO, VNG, Unie van Waterschappen , 2007. Maak ruimte voor klimaat! National adaptatiestrategie – de beleidsnotitie
10	UK.as	British Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, 2010. Defra’s climate change plan
11	Lebanon.cp	Earth Link and Advanced Resources Development S.A.R.L. (ELARD), 2010. Climate risks , vulnerability and adaptation assessment
12	Lebanon.cp2	Lebanese Ministry of Environment, 2011. Lebanon’s Second National Communication , Chap. 4 Climate risks, vulnerability and adaptation assessment
13	Med.ia	Giannakopoulos, C., et al. 2005. Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global temperature rise
14	Cyprus.ia	Bruggeman, A., et al. 2011. Effect of climate variability and climate change on crop production and water resources in Cyprus
15	CLICO.cp	CLICO, 2010. Climate outlooks for CLICO case study sites
16	Med.ia2	Plan Blue, 2010. The foreseeable impacts of climate change on the water resources of four major Mediterranean catchment basins
17	CECILIA.ia	CECILIA, 2010. CECILIA- Central and Eastern Europe climate change impact and vulnerability assessment
18	ENSEMBLES.ia	ENSEMBLES, 2009. Climate change and its impacts at seasonal, decadal and centennial timescales
19	Ireland.ia	Environmental Protection Agency 2003. Climate change—scenarios & impacts for Ireland
20	PESETA.ia	European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2009. Climate change impact in Europe—Final report of the PESETA research project
21	SIAM.ia	Santos, F.D., Forbes, K. And Moita, R., 2001. SIAM- Climate change in Portugal
22	IPCC.cp	IPCC, 2007. Chapter 11—Regional climate projections
23	UK.cp	British Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, 2009. Adapting to climate change—UK Climate projections
24	Belgium.ia	Patrick Willims, Pierre Baguis, Victor Ntegeka, Emmanuel Roulin. Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers and urban drainage systems in Belgium <CCI-HYDRO> Final Report. Brussels: Belgian Science Policy 2011–107 p. (Research programme Science for Sustainable Development)
25	Hungary.ia	Farago, T., Lang, I. and Csete, L., 2010. Climate change and Hungary: mitigating the hazard and preparing for the impacts—the VAHAVA report