Abstract
We explore the pathways for mitigating climate change to at most 2 ℃ and below by imposing a representative target trajectory for radiative forcing and by range of different price trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the inertia in both the energy and climate systems, it appears questionable whether the objective of limiting global warming to well-below 2 ℃ is achievable without considerably overshooting the target within the current century. Exceeding the constraints of the estimated carbon budget also means that the initial overshooting must be later compensated by removing the excess emissions with negative emissions, which may become very difficult without substantial technological changes leading the world into a sustainable post-fossil economy. We outline an idealised technology pathway aligning with these viewpoints. The analysis highlights the necessity for immediate mitigation action for avoiding excessive overshooting, the key role of negative emissions, and the prospects of producing synthetic fuels, chemicals and materials from renewables and carbon dioxide for enabling the transition into the post-fossil economy.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
APS (2011) Direct air capture of CO2 with chemicals. A Technology Assessment for the APS Panel on Public Affairs, American Physical Society
Breyer, C et al (2017) On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy transition scenarios. Prog Photovolt: Res Appl 25:727–745. Model data available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316883121_100_Renewables_Scenarios_Model_Data_and_Results
Brynolf S et al (2017) Electrofuels for the transport sector: a review of production costs. Renew Sustain Energy Rev (in press)
de la Chesnaye FC, Weyant JP (2006) Multigas mitigation and climate policy. Energy J Spec Issue on Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitig Clim Policy
Friedlingstein P et al (2014) Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets. Nat Geosci 7:709–715
Gambhir et al (2017) Assessing the feasibility of global long-term mitigation scenarios. Energies 10(1):89
Hannula I (2015) Co-production of synthetic fuels and district heat from biomass residues, carbon dioxide and electricity: Performance and cost analysis. Biomass Bioenerg 74:26–46
Hannula I (2016) Hydrogen enhancement potential of synthetic biofuels manufacture in the European context: a techno-economic assessment. Energy 104:199–212
Houghton RA et al (2012) Chapter G2 carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9:5125–5142
Houghton RA, Nassikas AA (2017) Global and regional fluxes of carbon from land use and land cover change 1850–2015. Global Biogeochem Cycles 31:456–472
IEA (2011) Technology roadmap: carbon capture and storage in industrial applications. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEA (2013) Technology roadmap: carbon capture and storage. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEA (2015) Technology roadmap: hydrogen and fuel cells. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEA (2016) Energy technology perspectives 2016. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEAGHG (2011) Potential for biomass and carbon dioxide capture and storage. IEAGHG. Report 2011/6. http://ieaghg.org/docs/General_Docs/Reports/2011-06.pdf
IPCC (2012) Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation: special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ISBN 978-1-107-02340-6)
IPCC (2013) Annex II: climate system scenario tables. In: Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York
Kallio M, Lehtilä A, Koljonen T, Solberg B (2015) Best scenarios for the forest end energy sectors—implications for the biomass market. Cleen Oy. Research report no D 1.2.1. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284414046_Best_scenarios_for_forest_and_energy_sectors_-_implications_for_the_biomass_market
Koljonen T et al (2009) The role of CCS and renewables in tackling climate change. Energy Procedia 1:4323–4330
Koljonen T, Lehtilä A (2015) Modelling pathways to a low carbon economy for Finland. In: Giannakidis G et al (eds) Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models, vol 30. Lecture Notes in Energy. Springer, Cham
Köning DH et al (2015) Simulation and evaluation of a process concept for the generation of synthetic fuel from CO2 and H2. Energy 91:833–841
Loulou R (2008) ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. Part II: mathematical formulation. CMS 5(1–2):41–66
Loulou R, Labriet M (2008) ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. Part I: model structure. CMS 5(1–2):7–40
Loulou R, Remme U, Kanudia A, Lehtilä A, Goldstein G (2016) Documentation for the TIMES model, energy technology systems analysis programme (ETSAP). http://iea-etsap.org/docs/Documentation_for_the_TIMES_Model-Part-I_July-2016.pdf
Millar RJ, Nicholls ZR, Friedlingstein P, Allen MR (2017) A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions. Atmos Chem Phys 17:7213–7228
Myhre G et al (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing—supplementary material. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
OECD (2014) Economic outlook No 95—May 2014—Long-term baseline projections. http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EO95_LTB
Schemme S et al (2017) Power-to-fuel a key to sustainable transport systems—an analysis of diesel fuels produced from CO2 and renewable electricity. Fuel 205:198–221
Schmidt, PR et al (2016) Renewables in transport 2050. Empowering a sustainable mobility future with zero emission fuels from renewable electricity. FVV, Frankfurt am Main, Report 1086
Smith P et al (2016) Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Climate Change 6(1):42–50
UNFCCC (2015) Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions. Technical annex—synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions. In: United nations framework convention on climate change. http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/9240.php
Van Vuuren DP et al (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature change below 2 ℃. Clim Change 109:95–116
Weyant J et al (2009) Report of 2.6 versus 2.9 Watts/m2 RCPP evaluation panel. Inter-govern-mental panel on climate change. http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session30/inf6.pdf
ZEP (2011) The costs of CO2 capture. Post-demonstration CCS in the EU. European technology platform for zero emission fossil fuel power plants. http://www.zeroemissionsplatform.eu/library/publication/166-zep-cost-report-capture.html
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Lehtilä, A., Koljonen, T. (2018). Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2 ℃ World. In: Giannakidis, G., Karlsson, K., Labriet, M., Gallachóir, B. (eds) Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 64. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-74423-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-74424-7
eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)