Abstract
Australia’s high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita reflects its relatively high proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumed, high usage of less efficient private transport and high production of non-ferrous metals per capita. The dominance of coal-fired electricity generation masks Australia’s rich diversity of renewable energy resources. This analysis examines multiple pathways towards achieving deep GHG emissions reduction by 2050 towards a zero emission energy sector. The electricity and transport sectors can achieve the greatest GHG emissions reductions of 70–80% by 2050. The direct combustion sector has a harder abatement task owing to fewer directly substitutable low emission energy sources. Strong global climate ambition, supporting high carbon prices, and the successful management of high shares of variable renewable electricity (VRE) generation are important in achieving deep emission reductions. Further research and development is required to unlock the potential of additional sources of low emission energy such as hydrogen and solar thermal heat to ensure emissions can be completely eliminated without the need to purchase potentially higher cost emission credits from other domestic sectors or the international market.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Conversion from USD to AUD real 2015 dollar was assumed to be constant 1USD = 1.331AUD based on the average 2015 exchange rate.
References
ABS (2015) Survey of motor vehicle use, Australia, 12 months ended 31 October 2014, Catalogue No. 9208.0. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
ACIL Allen (2014a) Fuel and technology cost review, Report to the Australian Energy Market Operator, June
ACIL Allen (2014b) RET Review modelling: market modelling of various RET policy options, Report to the RET Review Expert Panel, August
AEMO (2013) 100 percent renewables study—modelling outcomes. Australian Energy Market Operator, Melbourne
AEMO (2016a) National transmission network development plan. Australian Energy Market Operator, Melbourne
AEMO (2016b) 2016 NTNDP (National Transmission Network Development Plan) Database Input Data Traces. Australian Energy Market Operator, Melbourne
Campey T, Bruce S, Yankos T, Brinsmead T, Deverell J (2017) Low emissions technology roadmap. CSIRO, Canberra
Commonwealth of Australia (2008) Australia’s low pollution future: the economics of climate change mitigation. Australian Government, Canberra
Commonwealth of Australia (2011) Strong growth, low pollution: modelling a carbon price. Australian Government, Canberra
Denis A, Graham P, Hatfield-Dodds S et al (2014) Introduction. In: Sue W, Ferraro S, Kautto N, Skarbek A, Thwaites J (eds) Pathways to deep decarbonisation in 2050: how Australia can prosper in a low carbon world. ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, pp 5–21
DoEE (2017) National inventory Report 2015, Three volumes, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra
EIA (2016) Annual energy outlook 2016. Energy Information Administration, Washington DC
ESAA (2016) Electricity gas Australia 2016. Energy Supply Association of Australia, Melbourne
Finkel F, Moses K, Munro C, Effeney T, O’Kane M (2017) Independent review into the future security of the national electricity market: blueprint for the future. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra
Fricko O, Havlik P, Rogelj J, Klimont Z, Gust M, Johnsona N, Kolpa P, Strubegger M, Valin H, Amanna M, Ermolieva T, Forsell N, Herrero M, Heyes C, Kindermann G, Krey V, McCollum D, Obersteine M, Pachauri S, Rao S, Schmid E, Schoepp W, Riahia K (2017) Shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Glob Environ Change 42:251–267
Geoscience Australia, ABARE (2010) Australian energy resource assessment, Canberra
Government of South Australia (2017) News releases—Jay weatherill: port augusta solar thermal to boost competition and create jobs. Government of South Australia, Adelaide
Graham P, Hatfield-Dodds S (2014) Transport sector. In: Sue W, Ferraro S, Kautto N, Skarbek A, Thwaites J (eds) Pathways to deep decarbonisation in 2050: how Australia can prosper in a low carbon world. ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, pp 23–52
Hayward JA, Graham PW (2013) A global and local endogenous experience curve model for projecting the future uptake and cost of electricity generation technologies. Energy Economics 40:537–548
Hayward JA, Graham PW (2017) Electricity generation technology cost projections 2017–2050, CSIRO Report No. EP178771
IEA (2015) World energy outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEA (2016) World energy outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris
IEA (2017) Energy technology perspectives 2017. International Energy Agency, Paris
International Geothermal Expert Group (2014) Looking forward: barriers, risks and rewards of the Australian Geothermal Sector to 2020 and 2030, Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), Canberra
Loulou R, Goldstein G, Kanudia A, Lettila A, Remme U (2016) Documentation for the TIMES model (5 parts). International Energy Agency, Paris
OCE (2016a) Australian energy update. Office of the Chief Economist, Canberra
OCE (2016b) Australian energy statistics. Office of the Chief Economist, Canberra
Reedman L, Graham P (2016) Transport greenhouse gas emissions projections 2016, CSIRO Report No. EP167895, December
Smith K, Hatfield-Dodds S, Adams P, Baynes T, Brinsmead TS, Ferriera S, Harwood T, Hayward JA, Lennox J, Martinez RM, Nolan M (2017) Assessing risks and opportunities for Australia’s future in a novel integrated assessment framework: the GNOME.3 suite for the Australian national outlook. Paper presented at 22nd international congress on modelling and simulation (MODSIM2017), The Hotel Grand Chancellor Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3–8 December 2017
Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) (2014) Pathways to Deep Decarbonization. Report. SDSN, New York
van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ et al (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 °C. Clim Change 109:95
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the contributions of ClimateWorks Australia in the database development of the Australian TIMES model presented in this chapter.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Reedman, L.J. et al. (2018). Towards Zero Carbon Scenarios for the Australian Economy. In: Giannakidis, G., Karlsson, K., Labriet, M., Gallachóir, B. (eds) Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 64. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_16
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-74423-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-74424-7
eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)