Abstract
The author surveys and discusses linear asset pricing models with the intent to identify some sets of variables or factors with reduced dimensionality to approximate the core or pricing kernel of asset returns. A theoretical foundation may start with discussion on factor pricing models where asset returns are projected onto some lower-dimensional sets of factors that possibly explain the major variations of asset returns. The aim is to identify major determinants for the fluctuations of asset returns where these determinants satisfy some systematic properties that ensure their indispensable roles.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
In fact, it is rather intuitive to see the claim. If the theory requires no intercept in the model, inclusion of the intercept is redundant in estimations when the theory holds.
- 2.
This should be denoted as the industrial production growth rate since the variable is calculated as the inter-temporal difference of the logarithms of industrial production.
- 3.
Since the dependent variable is equity premium, it is usually of short memory. It would be more appropriate to consider Eq. (1.2.15) with the error-correction model, given that these regressors are long-memory and of a cointegrating relationship.
References
Bai, J. 2003. Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions. Econometrica 71: 135–171.
Bai, J., and S. Ng. 2002. Determining the Numbers of Factors in Approximate Factor Models. Econometrica 70: 191–221.
Barberis, N. 2000. Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable. Journal of Finance 55: 225–264.
Bekaert, G., and R.J. Hodrick. 1992. Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Finance 47: 467–509.
Bossaerts, P., and P. Hillion. 1999. Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn? Review of Financial Studies 12: 405–428.
Boudoukh, J., M.P. Richardson, and R.F. Whitelaw. 1994. A Tale of Three Schools: Insights of Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns. Review of Financial Studies, 7: 539–573.
Campbell, J.Y., and S.B. Thompson. 2008. Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average? Review of Financial Studies 21: 1509–1531.
Chamberlain, G. 1983. Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models. Econometrica 51: 1305–1323.
Chamberlain, G., and M. Rothschild. 1983. Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets. Econometrica 51: 1281–1304.
Chen, N.-F., R. Roll, and S.A. Ross. 1986. Economic Forces and the Stock Market. Journal of Business 59: 383–403.
Clements, M.P., and D.F. Hendry. 1999. Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Cooper M., and H. Gulen. 2006. Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time? Journal of Business 79: 1263–1292.
Cooper M., R.C. Gutierrez Jr., and B. Marcum. 2005. On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time. Journal of Business 78: 469–489.
Deetz, M., T. Poddig, I. Sidorovitch, and A. Varmaz. 2009. An Evaluation of Conditional Multi-Factor Models in Active Asset Allocation Strategies: An Empirical Study for the German Stock Market. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 23: 285–313.
Fama, E.F., and K.R. French. 1992. The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 47: 427–465.
Fama, E.F., and K.R. French. 1995. Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns. Journal of Finance 50: 131–155.
Fama, E.F., and K.R. French. 1996. Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies. Journal of Finance 51: 55–84.
Fama, E.F., and J.D. MacBeth. 1973. Risk, Return and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests. Journal of Political Economy 81: 607–636.
Ferson, W.E., and C.R. Harvey. 1991. The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums. Journal of Political Economy 99: 385–415.
Ferson, W., and R.A. Korajczyk. 1995. Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns? Journal of Business 68: 309–349.
Ferson, W.E., S. Sarkissian, and T. Simin. 2003. Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics. Journal of Finance 58: 1393–1413.
Giacomini, R., and H. White. 2006. Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability. Econometrica 74: 1545–1578.
Granger, C.W.J., and F. Marmol. 1998. The Correlogram of a Long Memory Process Plus a Simple Noise, Discussion Paper, 97-29. University of California, San Diego.
Granger, C.W.J., and P. Newbold. 1974. Spurious Regressions in Economics. Journal of Econometrics 4: 111–120.
Grinblatt, M., and S. Titman. 1985. Approximate Factor Structures: Interpretations and Implications for Empirical Tests. Journal of Finance 40: 1367–1373.
He, J., and K.K. Ng. 1994. Economic Forces, Fundamental Variables, and Equity Returns. Journal of Business 67: 599–609.
Koopmans, T.C. 1947. Measurement Without Theory. Review of Economics and Statistics 29: 161–172.
Kirby, C. 1998. The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models. Review of Financial Studies 11: 343–382.
Lettau, M., and S. Ludvigson. 2001. Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance 56: 815–849.
Lewellen, J., S. Nagel, and J. Shanken. 2010. A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset Pricing Tests. Journal of Financial Economics 96: 175–194.
Lo, A.W., and A.C. MacKinlay. 1990. Data Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models. Review of Financial Studies 3: 431–467.
Petkova, R. 2006. Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables? Journal of Finance 61: 581–621.
Pettit, R.R., and R. Westerfield. 1974. Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Market Model to Predict Security Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 9: 579–605.
Rapach, D.E., J.K. Strauss, and G. Zhou. 2010. Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy. Review of Financial Studies 23: 821–862.
Reisman, H. 1988. A General Approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Econometrica 56: 473–476.
Reisman, H. 1992. Reference Variables, Factor Structure, and the Approximate Multibeta Representation. Journal of Finance 47: 1303–1314.
Ross, S.A. 1976. The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. Journal of Economic Theory 13: 341–360.
Rust, J. 2014: The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013). Journal of Economic Literature 52: 820–850.
Shmueli, G. 2010. To Explain or to Predict? Statistical Science 25: 289–310.
Simin, T. 2008. The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43: 366–380.
Torous, W., R. Valkanov, and S. Yan. 2004. On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables. Journal of Business 77: 937–966.
Welch, I., and A. Goyal. 2008. A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction. Review of Financial Studies 21: 1455–1508.
Wolpin, K.I. 2013. The Limits of Inference Without Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Yule, G.U. 1926. Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense Correlations Between Time Series? A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time Series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 89: 1–63.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Jeng, JL. (2018). Asset Pricing Models: Specification, Data and Theoretical Foundation. In: Empirical Asset Pricing Models. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74192-5_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74192-5_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-74191-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-74192-5
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)