Abstract
We focus on concept uncertainty which adds a new layer to the traditional risk analysis distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, when adversaries are present. The idea is illustrated with a problem in adversarial point estimation framed as a specific case of adversarial statistical decision theory.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Banks D, Ríos J, Ríos Insua D (2015) Adversarial risk analysis. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Bedford T, Cooke RM (2001) Probabilistic risk analysis: foundations and methods. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Clyde M, George EI (2004) Model uncertainty. Stat Sci 19(1):81–94
Cooke RM (1991) Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford University Press, New York
Dalvi N, Domingos P, Mausam, Sanghai S, Verma D (2004) Adversarial classification. In: Kohavi R, Gehrke J, DuMouchel W, Ghosh J (eds) KDD’04 proceedings of 10th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining. ACM Press, New York
French S, Ríos Insua D (2000) Statistical decision theory. Wiley, New York
Gibbons R (1992) Game theory for applied economists. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Gil P (1997) Las matemáticas de lo incierto. Inaugural year address, University of Oviedo, Oviedo. http://digibuo.uniovi.es/dspace/bitstream/10651/28625/1/matematicasincierto.pdf
Hargreaves-Heap S, Varoufakis Y (1995) Game theory: a critical introduction. Routledge, London
Harsanyi JC (1967) Games with incomplete information played by “Bayesian” players, I-III. Part I. The basic model. Manag Sci 14(3):159–182
Hoeting JA, Madigan D, Raftery AE, Volinsky CT (1999) Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial. Stat Sci 14(4):382–417
Merrick J, Parnell GS (2011) A comparative analysis of PRA and intelligent adversary methods for counterterrorism management. Risk Anal 31(9):1488–1510
O’Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE, Rakow T (2006) Uncertain judgements: eliciting experts’ probabilities. Wiley, Chichester
Parry GW (1996) The characterization of uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessments of complex systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54(2–3):119–126
Paté-Cornell E, Guikema S (2002) Probabilistic modeling of terrorist threats: a systems analysis approach to setting priorities among countermeasures. Mil Op Res 7(4):5–23
Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22(11):1543–1556
Ríos J, Ríos Insua D (2012) Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling. Risk Anal 32(5):894–915
Ríos Insua D, Ríos J, Banks D (2009) Adversarial risk analysis. J Am Stat Assoc 104(486):841–854
Stahl DO, Wilson PW (1995) On players’ models of other players: theory and experimental evidence. Games Econ Behav 10(1):218–254
Tetlock P, Gardner D (2015) Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Random House, New York
Tygar JD (2011) Adversarial machine learning. IEEE Intern Comput 15(5):4–6
Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J, van der Sluijs JP, van Asselt MB, Janssen P, Krayer von Krauss MP (2003) Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr Assess 4(1):5–17
Acknowledgements
The work of DRI is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation program MTM2014-56949-C3-1-R and the AXA-ICMAT Chair on Adversarial Risk Analysis. JGO’s research is financed by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under FPI SO grant agreement BES-2015-072892. This work has also been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the “Severo Ochoa” Program for Centers of Excellence in R&D (SEV-2015-0554) and project MTM2015-72907-EXP.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ríos Insua, D., González-Ortega, J., Banks, D., Ríos, J. (2018). Concept Uncertainty in Adversarial Statistical Decision Theory. In: Gil, E., Gil, E., Gil, J., Gil, M. (eds) The Mathematics of the Uncertain. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 142. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73848-2_49
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73848-2_49
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-73847-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-73848-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)