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Long-Term Survival After Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

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The Mathematics of the Uncertain

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 142))

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Abstract

In this paper, the 10-year survival rate for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias is statistically analyzed. It is a retrospective, observational and descriptive study of demographic and clinical variables on patients undergoing either open or endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair with respect to the variable exitus. The study comprises 256 patients who were treated for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair along the period fro January 2003 to December 2006. Groups of patients did not show a homogeneous behaviour, since diabetes, old age, cardiac and renal pathologies had a negative effect on their control and monitoring. The average 10-year survival rate amounts 37.9%, cancer being the major cause of mortality (lung cancer being the most frequent one) and cardiovascular diseases were the second major cause of patients death.

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Acknowledgements

The research in this paper has been partially supported by the Principality of Asturias/FEDER Grant GRUPIN14-101 and the Spanish Grant MTM2015-63971-P from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad. Its financial support is gratefully acknowledged.

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Correspondence to José Manuel Llaneza .

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Dedication

Dedication

I was fortunate to meet Pedro at the middle 80s of last century. My need of help in order to do my PhD dissertation, as it happens to most of the doctors on dealing with the design of a study and the statistical analysis of the data, as well as the departure of my friend María Ángeles to her American adventure, made me to end up, quite defenseless, at the Department of Statistics in the University of Oviedo, where I met wonderful people and will never be grateful enough to Norberto, Teresa and Teófilo for their warm support.

Despite Pedro’s kind nature, the first reach out was difficult and things did not go well. At that time, he would be just fed up with people coming with a pile of data and the unique purpose of seeing what could be drawn from them, but without actual interest on a scientific collaboration. Nevertheless, my intention was to plan a well-designed work before beginning with the clinical examinations but I couldn’t calmly explain him my goals. At that initial period he did not look upon me favorably, and I used to literally keep clear of him, even keeping me hidden, sometimes, in an office so we could not meet each other. Several months later, the relationship dramatically changed, and from that moment I met one of the most positively influential persons in my life. I had the opportunity of talking with him in the faculty, during the years of preparation of my dissertation, in those long and friendly late-evening get-togethers, when we had finished our work and met, generally at Norberto’s office, before coming back home. Pedro used to recap the day, concerning about everyone’s issues, my dissertation included although it was far from the daily duties of the Department, turning later to speak about any other subject, none of us paying attention to the hour until we were there. I learned a lot from those conversations, not of Mathematics, but about coping with problems and living life.

Once I defended my dissertation, although I was in contact with the group of Statistics, I did not see Pedro so often. Unfortunately, his health issues appeared some years later. During his disease, he had a desirable composure at each conversation that we had during his visits to external consultations at the old Hospital. Tobacco could not be part of his life any more due to his throat and circulatory issues. Knowing Pedro, it seemed quite impossible to give him up from cigarettes. So I cruelly let him know the truth while he stared at me as if he were saying “Ask me for anything, but do not bother me with tobacco”. Surprisingly he quitted smoking almost at the first attempt. When the first examinations had concluded, I remind telling him, with my usual tact, that he was much older internally than what was written on his identity card. Then his mathematical mind appeared and we tried to calculate the age of his arteries in comparison with the age at his official documents. We were always joking around that difference and trying to adjust it with every new examination.

Another issue was to achieve that Pedro could walk with ease by Oviedo’s hills. The peripheral circulatory disease causes the so-called sporadic failure that obliges those suffering it to stop every so often. Being able of walking farther depends on the training. As he always said, with snide humor, worse than bearing with his pains on walking was putting up with his colleagues’ comments who pulled his legs when he stopped and encouraged him to go on. His willpower prevailed here, too, and he finally achieved to do an almost normal life. Apart from what is strictly professional, we hardly needed anything to bring up-to-date; a glance and a couple of sentences were enough most of the times due to our mutual understanding.

Along the years I treated Pedro, he never boasted about honors or merits. I knew about them through his mates at the department and, above all, at that surprise jubilee meeting where all his achievements were revised. There I confirmed his humility and how much everybody cared about him.

Shortly after his heart warn for the first time. He had just arrived from Paris and one could realize how happy he was with his children’s welfare. He was aware of his condition, never having long face, but always looking forward. We argued a lot about how his badly damaged heart was going to be fixed, but none of us were in the loop on that subject. After several days of arguments, sitting at the hospital bed, he told me that he had realized that none of us was a cardiology expert so we should better let the doctors at the haemodynamics service work. During his stay at the hospital we spoke at length about many subjects apart from his disease. I slipped away to Pedro’s room whenever I could, even at strange hours due to a long-lasting surgery. For me, it was meeting a friend from outside the hospital in order to keep ourselves up to date. We spoke openly about everything. Once again, it was a continuous lesson, because time and experience had made a good work in his mind. He was not only great at Mathematics but also knew why it was worth living; at least it seems to me that he did. He had a wonderful point of view; in the majority of the matters, his reasoning was so quiet, clear and organized that everything looked easier.

I will always remember your love for the well-done work and your smile on seeing me, even in those periods when things were not going well.

Thanks a lot, Buddy!

Tuve la suerte de conocer a Pedro en mitad de los 80 del siglo pasado. La necesidad de ayuda para hacer la tesis doctoral, como nos ocurre a la mayoría de los médicos cuando se aborda el diseño de un estudio y el tratamiento estadístico de los datos, unida a la marcha de mi amiga María Ángeles a su aventura americana, hizo que aterrizase, un poco desvalido, en el Departamento de Estadística de la Universidad de Oviedo, donde conocí a gente maravillosa y nunca agradeceré lo suficiente a Norberto, Teresa y Teófilo el apoyo que me brindaron.

A pesar del carácter amable de Pedro’ la primera toma de contacto fue difícil y la cosa no pintó bien. Por aquella época ya debía de estar un poco harto de que apareciese por allí gente con un montón de datos para ver qué se podía sacar de ellos, pero sin estar realmente interesados en una colaboración científica. Mi intención, sin embargo, era plantear un trabajo bien diseñado y luego comenzar con las exploraciones clínicas. No pude llegar a explicarle con tranquilidad mis objetivos, así que en esa primera época no me miraba con ‘buenos ojos’ y yo procuraba evitarlo, literalmente, e incluso alguna vez me tuvieron ‘escondido’ en un despacho para no encontrarnos. Pasados los primeros meses, la relación cambió radicalmente, y a partir de ahí conocí al que creo fue una de las personas que influyó de forma más positiva en mi vida. Tuve la oportunidad de conversar con él en la facultad, durante los años que duró la preparación de la tesis, en aquellas largas y amigables tertulias a última hora de la tarde, cuando el trabajo finalizaba y nos reuníamos, generalmente en el despacho de Norberto, antes de irnos a casa. Pedro hacía un repaso de cómo había ido el día, interesándose por las cosas de cada uno, incluso de mi tesis, que tan lejos quedaba del quehacer diario del Departamento y posteriormente hablábamos de cualquiera tema, sin importarnos la hora a ninguno de los que allí estábamos. De esas conversaciones aprendí muchas cosas, no de matemáticas, sino de cómo encarar los problemas y a caminar por la vida.

Una vez leída la tesis, aunque seguí en relación con la gente de Estadística, no veía a Pedro con tanta frecuencia. Pasado el tiempo, por desgracia, aparecieron sus problemas de salud. Durante su enfermedad tuvo una entereza envidiable en las conversaciones que manteníamos en sus visitas a la consulta externa del viejo Hospital. Sus problemas de garganta y circulatorios hacían que el tabaco no pudiese estar presente de ninguna de las maneras en su vida. Conociendo a Pedro parecía una tarea imposible conseguir separarlo de los cigarrillos, así que le informé crudamente de la realidad mientras me miraba como diciendo “pídeme cualquier otra cosa, pero deja de fastidiarme con el tabaco”. Increíblemente consiguió dejar de fumar prácticamente a la primera. Una vez hechas las primeras exploraciones, recuerdo que le comenté, con mi delicadeza habitual, que por dentro era mucho más viejo que lo que decía su carnet de identidad. Entonces comenzó a aflorar su mente matemática e intentábamos calcular la edad de sus arterias en comparación con la edad que figuraba en el DNI. Siempre bromeábamos con esa diferencia e intentábamos ajustarla con las exploraciones que se iba haciendo.

La segunda parte del problema era conseguir que Pedro pudiese caminar con soltura por las cuestas de Oviedo. La enfermedad circulatoria periférica provoca lo que se llama claudicación intermitente y obliga, a quien la padece, a tener que pararse cada cierta distancia. Conseguir caminar más metros depende del entrenamiento que se haga. Como siempre me comentaba, de forma socarrona, los dolores de caminar no eran lo peor; lo malo era aguantar los comentarios de los compañeros de la facultad que le tomaban el pelo por las veces que tenía que pararse y le animaban a continuar; también aquí se impuso su fuerza de voluntad y terminó consiguiendo hacer una vida prácticamente normal. Aparte de lo puramente profesional, poco necesitábamos para ponernos al día, ya que la relación de complicidad fluía claramente entre nosotros, un par de miradas y cuatro frases bastaban para entendernos en la mayoría de las cosas.

En todos los años que traté con Pedro, nunca alardeó de honores ni méritos. Si los conocí fue a través de sus compañeros de departamento y, sobre todo, en aquella reunión sorpresa por su jubilación donde se repasaron sus logros; en ella pude confirmar su humildad y sobre todo comprobar lo que la gente le quería.

Desde esa reunión pasó poco tiempo hasta que su corazón dio el primer aviso. Venía de París y se le notaba muy feliz con lo bien que les iba a sus hijos. El fue consciente de su situación, siempre sin una mala cara y con ganas de mirar hacia delante. Discutíamos mucho de cómo le iban a arreglar su maltrecho corazón, aunque los dos estábamos bastante pez en esas cosas. Tras varios días de conversaciones sentados en la cama del hospital, me comentó que se había dado cuenta de que realmente ninguno de los dos teníamos ni idea de cardiología y era mejor dejar trabajar a los médicos de la unidad de hemodinámica. Durante su ingreso charlamos largamente de temas al margen de su enfermedad y siempre que tenía un hueco me escapaba hasta la habitación de Pedro para visitarle, a veces en horas un poco raras porque había tocado quirófano largo, pero para mí era como reunirme con un amigo fuera del hospital para comentar cómo nos había ido el día. Hablamos abiertamente de todo y nuevamente fue una enseñanza continua, pues el paso del tiempo y la experiencia hicieron un buen trabajo en su cabeza, que no sólo sabía mucho de Matemáticas sino que tenía una idea muy clara de por qué merece la pena vivir, o al menos eso me parecía a mí. Tenía una perspectiva maravillosa de las cosas y en la mayoría de los temas que tratábamos su razonamiento era tranquilo, claro y organizado haciendo que todo pareciese siempre más sencillo.

Te recordaré siempre por tu aprecio al trabajo bien hecho y la sonrisa que me dedicabas al verme, incluso en los momentos en que las cosas no iban bien.

!‘Muchas gracias, Amigo!

José Manuel Llaneza, November 2017

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Llaneza, J.M., Corral, N., Busto, S., Zanabili, A., Alonso, M. (2018). Long-Term Survival After Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair. In: Gil, E., Gil, E., Gil, J., Gil, M. (eds) The Mathematics of the Uncertain. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 142. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73848-2_22

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73848-2_22

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