Abstract
This chapter addresses Russian leadership in the former Soviet region. It considers the comparative context of approaches to regional leadership. The Russian version falls on the hegemonic/coercive end of that spectrum. The analysis proceeds to discuss power indicators in the region, showing the degree of Russian dominance. The chapter then examines the evolution of Russia’s perspectives on and practice of leadership, arguing that, after a period of debate, a consensual elite view, supported by public opinion, has emerged. That view constitutes a profound challenge to Western views of regional order in Europe. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how to explain the approach that Russia has taken.
The author is grateful to Harald Edinger, Hannes Ebert, Tedo Japaridze, and Stefan Meister for comments on earlier drafts.
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Notes
- 1.
This point is a specific aspect of a broader logic covered in Robert Gilpin ’s discussion of declining powers (1981, 189–195).
- 2.
This analysis ends in December 2016 and does not discuss the evidence of a different US perspective on the region under the Trump administration. However, President Trump has abandoned his earlier promise to “cancel North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ” and has agreed to commence negotiations on reform of the regional trading system.
- 3.
The data are incomplete, as no information is available on Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Such data would not significantly affect the general picture.
- 4.
The latest foreign policy concept (2016a, 25) refers to both NATO and the EU as reflecting geopolitical expansion. At times, Russian officials have also complained of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) complicity in this Western projection of norms.
- 5.
The Rose Revolution removed the Shevardnadze government and initiated a rapid reform of governance and legal institutions. The Orange Revolution was a widespread protest against a fabricated election and produced a similarly reformist government.
- 6.
For a detailed account of independent Russia’s transition from Westernizing to statist foreign and security policy, see Tsygankov (2016, 59–96).
- 7.
Keal (1983) offers a very helpful theorization of the concept of spheres of influence and applies the concept effectively to the Cold War division of Europe.
- 8.
It is worth noting that the USSR and the Russian Federation have subscribed to most of these international normative documents. This difference is not covert but public. As one Russian commentator noted recently, “Russian authorities have portrayed their country as one that doesn’t hesitate to violate every international norm, including by murdering their own citizens abroad” (Pertsev 2017).
- 9.
Lavrov (2016) notes in this context that the enlargement of NATO and the EU is not so much about smaller states “going from subjugation to freedom … but rather a change of leadership” since the new members “can’t take any significant decision without the green light from Washington or Brussels.”
- 10.
The liberal empire theme was later identified as one of two dominant concepts in Russia’s approach to its region by Ivan Safranchuk (2008).
- 11.
I am grateful to Stefan Meister for comment on this point.
- 12.
For example, S/RES/937 (1994), in which the Security Council expressed its appreciation for Russian (CIS ) “peacekeeping” initiatives in the Abkhazian region of Georgia or S/RES/1089 (1996) where they did the same for Russia’s intervention in Tajikistan ’s civil war.
- 13.
Tajikistan differs from the other four conflicts, since a formal peace agreement was achieved.
- 14.
For a detailed discussion of the partnership programme and of the EU ’s approach to the states on its eastern littoral, see MacFarlane and Menon (forthcoming). See also an exhaustive and extremely useful account of the Vilnius and post-Vilnius process in Wiegand and Schulz (2015).
- 15.
This dependence stems from the lack of a settlement to the Karabakh conflict, the rapid increase in Azerbaijani military modernization, and Armenia ’s poor relations with Turkey.
- 16.
For an analysis up to 2007, see Walker (2007).
- 17.
For a good summary of the aims and activities of the organization, as well as access to key documents, see Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) (2002 and ongoing).
- 18.
For a recent negative prognosis, see Dragneva and Wolczuk (2017).
- 19.
For a useful analysis of Russian policy in Central Asia, with reference to China, see Mankoff (2012, 244–258).
- 20.
Gabuev (2017) provides detailed background on the development of the SCO in the context of the China-Russia dyad.
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MacFarlane, S.N. (2018). Contested Regional Leadership: Russia and Eurasia. In: Ebert, H., Flemes, D. (eds) Regional Powers and Contested Leadership. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73691-4_10
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