Abstract
Purpose Substantiating the methodology of evaluation of risks with the expert evaluations method in view of experts’ belonging to various institutional groups. Discussion Management of changes in socio-economic systems is directly related to evaluation of future risks—planned or the ones appearing in external environment. The problem is that generally accepted methods of evaluation of risks are applied to the events that recur in the same or similar conditions. In this case, the methods that are based on the theory of probability show high effectiveness. However, there is not such recurrence in real socio-economic conditions. Even is the event is the same, the conditions are always different. This makes the application of the theory of probability ineffective for evaluation of risks. Results Studies show that analysis and forecasting of risks could be performed with the usage of expert evaluations. In the most general case, evaluation of the risks and coordination of experts’ opinions is practiced. We offer to conduct evaluation of experts’ opinions not from the point of view of their coordination but from the position of differences in opinions, based on experts’ belonging to various social groups.
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Treshchevsky, Y.I., Voronin, V.P., Melnik, M.V., Sokolov, A.A. (2018). Analysis of Risks of Forecasted Changes with the Help of Fuzzy Logic Elements. In: Endovitsky, D., Popkova, E. (eds) Management of Changes in Socio-Economic Systems. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 135. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72613-7_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72613-7_7
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