Energy Perspective 2030 for Ukraine in the Context of the EU Integration
Today there is no state that can be sure in its energy security. States and its citizens are constantly faced with new threats. The layout of the article is as follows: Section 10.1 describes the introduction to the problem, highlighting the scope and agenda of the energy security study. Section 10.2 describes the concept of the energy security for Ukraine, current trends, and calculative assessments available in the world and considers the position of Ukraine in the World Energy Council (WEC) index in details. Section 10.3s provides expert scenario forecasting of the balance of electricity in Ukraine up to 2030 with regard to world megatrends and EU integration of the state. Comparison assessment of the international risk index for energy security of EU states and Ukraine is presented. Section 10.4 provides the VAR modeling and impulse analysis of Ukraine’s energy security to resource shocks. Those are followed by short conclusion and discussion. Results of this paper have a few policy implications for the energy strategies of Ukraine and the EU. First of all, it is a high time to review the energy policy in the aspect of the energy security adequate assessment and forecasting. It is also necessary to improve the Ukrainian legislation in the field of energy efficiency, in particular regarding the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in Ukraine, according to optimistic scenario of the development.
KeywordsEnergy security Ukraine Assessment EU
Paper is done in the framework of scientific faculty research 16КФ040-04 “Steady state security assessment: a new framework for analysis” (2016–2018).
- BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016.: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-full-report.pdf (2016)
- Energy Strategy of Ukraine towards 2030.: http://zakon1.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/145-2006-%D1%80 (2006)
- Energy Strategy of Ukraine towards 2035.: http://mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/doccatalog/document?id=245032412 (2016)
- Khomenko, O.: Energy trilateral index: is Ukraine energy efficient? https://uifuture.org/uk/comment/indeks-energeticnoi-trilemi-ci-energoefektivna-ukraina_15 (2016)
- Large Energy User Group Index Scores and Rankings (1980–2014): Edition final (2016)Google Scholar
- State Statistical Agency of Ukraine. Energy.: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ (2017)
- Stavytskyy, A., Sadovenko, O.: Analysis and modeling of social security index in Ukraine, Lithuania and Scandinavian countries. Economika. 92(4), 37–53 (2013)Google Scholar
- Ukrainian Energy Index.: http://energyindex.scm.com.ua/media/report/pdf/UEI_13_3.pdf (2013)
- World Energy Council official web site.: https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/#!/countryprofile?country=Ukraine&year=2016. Energy profile 2016 of Ukraine (2016)
- World Energy Trilemma Index Report 2016.: https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/reports/main/2016/2016%20Energy%20Trilemma%20Index.pdf (2016)
- Yermilov, S.: Energy strategy of Ukraine to 2030: problematic issues of content and implementation. Zerkalo nedeli 20 (2006)Google Scholar