Movie Analytics and the Future of Film Finance. Are Oscars and Box Office Revenue Predictable?

  • Christophe Bruneel
  • Jean-Louis Guy
  • Dominique HaughtonEmail author
  • Nicolas Lemercier
  • Mark-David McLaughlin
  • Kevin Mentzer
  • Quentin Vialle
  • Changan Zhang
Part of the Media Business and Innovation book series (MEDIA)


This chapter discusses to which extent modern analytics techniques can help us understand the success of movies, as measured by their box office or attributed Oscars. Interesting lessons emerge from our analyses. Predicting box office revenue on the basis of data available before the release of the movie remains difficult, even with state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction markets are a remarkably powerful tool at predicting success at Oscars. A moderate amount of controversy, as measured by the number of underlying themes raised by movie reviewers, may prove to be helpful in obtaining an Academy Award for Best Picture .


Box office revenue Controversy Film financing Data mining Movie analytics Oscars Prediction markets Text mining 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Christophe Bruneel
    • 1
    • 5
  • Jean-Louis Guy
    • 1
    • 5
  • Dominique Haughton
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
    Email author
  • Nicolas Lemercier
    • 5
  • Mark-David McLaughlin
    • 2
    • 6
  • Kevin Mentzer
    • 7
  • Quentin Vialle
    • 8
    • 9
  • Changan Zhang
    • 10
  1. 1.Toulouse School of EconomicsToulouseFrance
  2. 2.Bentley UniversityWalthamUSA
  3. 3.SAMMUniversité Paris 1ParisFrance
  4. 4.TSE-RUniversité Toulouse 1ToulouseFrance
  5. 5.Université Toulouse 1ToulouseFrance
  6. 6.Cisco SystemsSan JoseUSA
  7. 7.Bryant UniversitySmithfieldUSA
  8. 8.InboxMalakoffFrance
  9. 9.Université ToulouseToulouseFrance
  10. 10.CTripShanghaiChina

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