Human Vulnerability Mapping Facing Critical Service Disruptions for Crisis Managers
Societies rely on the exchange of essential goods and services produced by Critical Infrastructures (CI). The failure of one CI following an event could cause “cascading effects” on other CI that amplifies the crisis. Existing tools incorporate modelling and simulation techniques to analyze these effects. The CIPRNet tools go a step further by assessing the consequences on population in a static manner: people are located at their census home; their sensibility to a resource lack varies during the day. This paper improves human impacts assessment by mapping people mobility thanks to the DEMOCRITE project methodology. It focuses on location of people with regards to their activities and the time period (night/day, holidays), and discuss their sensibility to the lack of key infrastructure services. Human vulnerability maps of Paris area during periods of a working day time show the importance to take into account people mobility when assessing crisis impacts.
KeywordsCascading effects Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability mapping Risk analysis GIS method
This work was derived from the FP7 projects CIPRNet and PREDICT, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreements no. 312450 and no. 607697, respectively. The contents of this article do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed herein lies entirely with the authors. The authors want to thank the DEMOCRITE (ANR-13-SECU-0007) project that enables the research on this topic.
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