Advertisement

Why Is Uncertainty a Game Changer for Water Policy and Practice?

Chapter

Abstracts

Climate change and its uncertain impacts on water systems has raised awareness of the limitations of current planning and management practices in the water sector. Global climate modeling and regional impact assessment are plagued with severe uncertainties stemming from natural variability, uncertain assumptions about future emissions, differences in how global models are structured, and what climate processes they include and exclude. The same model with slightly different initial conditions can give quite different results. Therefore, it is difficult to use them to predict future climate at local and regional scales. This chapter articulates the problem of climatic uncertainty, identifies other relevant uncertainties associated with demand and regulation, and discusses the challenges they present for water planning and decision-making.

References

  1. Arizona Department of Water Resources. 2017. “Phoenix AMA Summary Budget.” http://www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/WaterManagement/Assessments/default.htm. Accessed August 14 2017.
  2. Camacho, Alejandro E. 2009. “Adapting Governance to Climate Change: Managing Uncertainty Through a Learning Infrastructure.” Emory Law Review 59: 1–77.Google Scholar
  3. City of Phoenix Water Services Department. 2014. “Water Production and Water Use, 1990–2013.” Obtained through public record request.Google Scholar
  4. Cubasch, U., D. Wuebbles, D. Chen, M. C. Facchini, D. Frame, N. Mahowald, and J-G Winther. 2013. Introduction. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley. 119–158. Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  5. DeBeer, Chris M., Howard S. Wheater, Sean K. Carey, and Kowk P. Chun. 2016. “Recent Climatic, Cryospheric, and Hydrological Changes over the Interior of Western Canada: A Review and Synthesis.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20:1573–1598, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1573-2016.
  6. DeOreo, William B. with Leslie Martien, Matthew Hayden, Andrew Funk, Michael Kramer-Duffield, Renee Davis, James Henderson, Bob Raucher, Peter Gleick, and Matt Herberger. 2011. “California Single-family Water Use Efficiency Study.” Boulder, CO; Aquacraft. http://www.aquacraft.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CalSF-Water-Study-Report-Body-120811.pdf. Accessed September 13 2017.
  7. Flory, Bruce. 2013. “Why We Are Here.” Presentation to Urban Water Demand Roundtable,” Tempe, Arizona, April 18 and 19, 2013. https://d3dqsm2futmewz.cloudfront.net/docs/dcdc/website/documents/2_BruceFlory_WhyAreWeHere-Flory130418.pdf?x58848. Accessed August 27 2017.
  8. Gammage, Grady. 1999. Phoenix in Perspective: Reflections on Developing the Desert. Tempe, AZ: Herberger Center for Design Excellence, College of Architecture and Urban Design, Arizona State University.Google Scholar
  9. Gober, Patricia. 2006. Metropolitan Phoenix: Place Making and Community Building in the Desert. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gober, Patricia, Ray Quay, and Kelli L. Larson. 2016. “Outdoor Water Use as an Adaptation Problem: Insights from North American Cities.” Water Resources Management 30(3): 899–912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hall, John, and Edoardo Borgomeo. 2013. “Risk-based Principles for Defining and Managing Water Security.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 371: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0407.
  12. Harlan, Sharon L., and Darren M. Ruddell. 2011. “Climate Change and Health in Cities: Impacts of Heat and Air Pollution and Potential Co-benefits from Mitigation and Adaptation.” Current Opinion in Sustainability 3(3): 126–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hawkins, Ed, and Rowan Sutton. 2009. “The potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90: 1095–1107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hirt, Paul, Annie Gustafson, and Kelli L. Larson. 2008. “The Mirage in the Valley of the Sun.” Environmental History 13(July): 482–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Hogue, Terry S. and Stephanie Pincetl. 2015. Are You Watering Your Lawn? Science 348(6241): 1319–1320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Huitema, Dave, and Sander Meijerink. 2010. “Realizing Water Transitions: The Role of Policy Entrepreneurs in Water Policy Change.” Ecology and Society 15(2): 26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Jiménez Cisneros, B. E., T. Oki, N. W. Arnell, N. W. G. Benito, J. G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S. W. Mwakalila. 2014. Freshwater Resources. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L. White, 229–269, Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  18. Karl, Thomas R., Gerald A. Meehl, Christopher D. Miller, Susan J. Hassol, Anne M. Waple, and William L. Murray. 2008. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.1 Report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. https://www.climatecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/climateextremes.pdf. Accessed September 22 2017.
  19. Kenney, Douglas S., Roberta A. Klein, and Martyn P. Clark. 2004. “Use and Effectiveness of Municipal Water Restrictions During Drought in Colorado.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40(1): 77–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kiefer, Jack C., John M. Clayton, Benedykt Dziegieleski, and James Henderson. 2013. “Analysis of Changes in Water Use Under Regional Climate Change Scenarios.” Denver, CO, Water Research Foundation Accessed on June 20, 2017 at: http://www.waterrf.org/Pages/Projects.aspx?PID=4263.
  21. Lach, Denise H., Helen Ingram, and Steve Rayner. 2006. “Maintaining the Status Quo: How Institutional Norms and Practices Create Conservative Water Organizations.” Texas Law Review 83(7): 2027–2053.Google Scholar
  22. Lempert, Robert J., and Michael E. Schlesinger. 2000. “Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change.” Climatic Change 45(3–4): 387–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes. 2003. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods of Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: Rand.Google Scholar
  24. Maggioni, Elena. 2015. “Water Demand Management in Times of Drought: What Matters for Water Conservation?” Water Resources Research 51: 125–139.Google Scholar
  25. Milly, P. C. D., Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert M. Hirsch, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Robert J. Stouffer. 2008. “Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?” Science 319(5863): 573–574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Paul A. Coomes, Barry D. Kornstein, Thomas D. Rockaway, Joshua A. Rivard. 2010. “North America Residential Water Usage Trends.” Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation 2010 (9): 6488–6500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Pielke Jr. Roger A., Joel Gratz, Christopher W. Landsea, Douglas Collins, Mark A. Saunders, and R. Rade Musulin. 2008. Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1900–2005. Natural Hazards Review 9(1): 29–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Quay, Ray. 2010. “Anticipatory Governance: A Tool for Climate Change Adaptation.” Journal of the American Planning Association 76(4): 496–511.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Quay, Ray. 2015. “Planning for Demand Uncertainty in Integrated Water Resource Management.” Journal of the American Water Works Association 107(2): 32–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Stein, Bruce A., Amanda Staudt, Molly S. Cross, Natalie S. Dubois, Carolyn Enquist, Roger Griffis, Lara J. Hansen et al. 2013. Preparing for and Managing Change: Climate Adaptation for Biodiversity and Ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11(9) (2013): 502–510.Google Scholar
  31. Stirling, Andy. 2010. “Keep It Complex.” Nature 438:1029–1031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Trenberth, Kevin. 2010. “More Knowledge Less Certainty.” Nature Reports Climate Change 4(February): 20–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 2014. “Water Withdrawal.” http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/infographics/Withdrawal_eng.pdf. Accessed June 22 2017.
  34. Vandentorren, S., and P. Empereur-Bissonnet. 2005. “Health Impact of the 2003 Heat-Wave in France” In Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses, edited by W. Kirch, B. Menne, and R. Bertolinni, 81–88. Berlin: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. White House Press Office. 2017. “Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/01/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord. Accessed September 27 2017.
  36. Wickman, Casey J., Laura O. Taylor, and Roger H. von Haefen. 2016. “Conservation Policies: Who Responds to Price and Who Responds to Prescription?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 79: 114–134.Google Scholar
  37. Wilby, Robert L. and Surage Dessai. 2010. “Robust Adaptation to Climate Change.” Weather 65(7): 180–183.Google Scholar
  38. Willows, Robert and Richenda K. Connell (Eds.). 2003. Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP, Oxford. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/PDFs/UKCIP-Risk-framework.pdf. Accessed August 14 2017.
  39. Wynne, Brian. 1992. “Uncertainty and Environment Learning: Reconceiving Science and Policy in the Preventive Paradigm.” Global Environmental Change 2(June): 111–127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Geographical Sciences and Urban PlanningArizona State UniversityTempeUSA

Personalised recommendations