Abstract
With maritime resources dominating over 60% of Cook Islands, 83% Kiribati and 90% of Palau’s economic activity, climate change uncertainty through increased impacts of storms, cyclones, floods, landslides, bushfires, heatwaves and tsunamis for future Pacific ports, shipping and maritime supply chains (MSC’s) will significantly constrain coastal communities’ capacity to survive and prosper. This paper identifies flaws in existing climate change risk management techniques; by proposing mechanisms to predict true risk events and associated impact costs for stakeholders to more reliably ascertain supply chain and coastal vulnerability beyond existing qualitative approaches. It establishes historic probabilities of climate change risk events across the Pacific as a basis for more accurately determining the probability of future extreme events. Providing a risk-perception survey for Pacific MSC’ stakeholders, compares the extent of climate change risk awareness with reality. It presents a risk-vulnerability matrix of existing climate change across an entire Pacific MSC’ using a Cook Islands case study. It proposes conditional probabilities of MSC’ asset failure, projecting a risk analysis for vulnerable community stakeholders to prioritise risk. It identifies how these disruptive risks can be transformed into risk opportunities, through improving survey techniques and learning from existing Pacific, climateproofing, adaptation strategies.
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Dyer, J. (2018). Predicting True Climate Change Risks and Opportunities in the Cook Islands: How Vulnerable Are Pacific Maritime Supply Chain Stakeholders?. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Coastal Communities. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70703-7_20
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70703-7_20
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