Evaluation of Climate Change Impact as a Tool for Sustainable Development: A Case Study of a Mexican Basin

Abstract

Nowadays, the conservation of water resources is one of the main challenges of sustainable development in Mexico. In the future, the expected climate change would increase the water supply issues in the country. This work shows the evaluation of the climate change impact on water resources as a tool for sustainable development at local scale. This research topic is important as the assessment of the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and streamflow provides valuable information for society and decision makers in order to be prepared for this challenge, especially in such regions with water scarcity conditions. The case study is the Valles River Basin, which is located in the Mexican Sierra Madre Oriental mountain chain. The Valles River Basin is a region that is already affected by water shortage and by the water stress caused by the inadequate management of its water resources. The methodology of this study includes the use of climate simulations to feed a hydrological model in order to estimate future streamflow. In this research, climate simulations were obtained from the Canadian Regional Model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) periods. The results indicate an important decrease on future streamflow, especially during the wet season. All in all, the estimation of the future conditions of the basin’s water resources would help local water managers in order to prepare adaptation strategies.