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What’s the Worst Thing that Can Happen?—A Simple Exercise to Communicating and Reasoning About Climate Change

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Handbook of Climate Change Communication: Vol. 2

Part of the book series: Climate Change Management ((CCM))

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Abstract

Climate communication has so far not being very successful in fostering behavioral changes of individuals and inducing political interventions. There is a gap between knowledge and behavior and there is a tendency to postpone serious action with the reason that science is not settled about the extent of impacts and the effectiveness of counter action. However, the preposition of the authors is that there is no much sense in waiting for something to be proven, but there is a necessity for making a rational decision between “doing something” or “doing nothing”. Instead of waiting for scientific proof, the question is reframed to what is the best bet in the face of uncertainty and low probability, high impact events. A structured exercise and facilitation guideline is presented as a tool for lecturers and teachers, to generally discuss about climate change within a rational framework. Making use of the Craven’s grid, after its inventor Greg Craven, its limits are assessed and opportunities for further development are derived. The grid can be developed into an instrument that may prepare participants for understanding small probability, high impact events. As such, the exercise can be very useful for discussing climate change issues, but also other events which are grounded in the increasing complexity of systems.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Moser (2010).

  2. 2.

    E.g., complex physics, lack of immediacy and visibility of impacts, time-lag and geographical distance between cause and effects, etc.

  3. 3.

    Defense mechanisms such as denial, rational distancing, apathy and delegation as well as confirmation bias and polarization.

  4. 4.

    Cognitive limitations refer to the non-immediacy and non-tangibility of environmental problems, that are often not directly noticed due to slow and gradual rates of occurrence and time lags or simply due to the inability to detect. Humans are also often not able to grasp dynamic and complex systems and then to linear thinking and simplification (Kollmuss and Agyeman 2002 Ref. to Preuss 1991; Fliegenschnee and Schelakovsky 1998).

  5. 5.

    Stehr (2015a, b), Giddens (2009), Prins et al. (2010).

  6. 6.

    Gifford et al. (2011), Corner et al. (2011) cited in Hagen et al. (2015).

  7. 7.

    Nerlich et al. (2010), cited in Hagen et al. (2015).

  8. 8.

    Moser and Dilling (2010).

  9. 9.

    Kollmuss and Agyeman (2002) Ref. to Preuss (1991) and Fliegenschnee and Schelakovsky (1998).

  10. 10.

    Moser and Dilling (2007), Shome and Marx (2009).

  11. 11.

    Kahan et al. (2011), Moser (2010, 2016), Weber and Stern (2011).

  12. 12.

    Meadows (1999).

  13. 13.

    Hacking (1972), Jordan (2006).

  14. 14.

    Hájek (2012).

  15. 15.

    Jordan (2006).

  16. 16.

    IPCC (2014).

  17. 17.

    Craven (2010), Blumen (2010).

  18. 18.

    Stehr (2015a).

  19. 19.

    Harris et al. (2015), Stern (2007), Nordhaus (2008).

  20. 20.

    Schellnhuber (2010), Ehrlich and Ehrlich (2013), Mann (2009).

  21. 21.

    Based on Craven (2010).

  22. 22.

    Allan (2011).

  23. 23.

    See Taleb (2007).

  24. 24.

    http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2015/01/03/greg-cravens-viral-climate-decision-grid-video/ (2016-04-08).

  25. 25.

    Blumen (2010).

  26. 26.

    Another examples of this argument was used by Richard Lilton in this comment: http://www.blackswanreport.com/blog/2015/05/our-statement-on-climate-models/ (2015-08-16).

  27. 27.

    Craven (2010: 30).

  28. 28.

    IPCC (2014).

  29. 29.

    Curry (2011), Cooke (2015), Platje and Kampen (2016), Oppenheimer (2005).

  30. 30.

    Mastrandrea et al. (2010), Moss and Schneider (2000), cited in EEA (2013).

  31. 31.

    van der Sluijs et al. (2010a, b) in Curry (2011), Curry and Webster (2011).

  32. 32.

    Likelihood scale according to Mastrandrea et al. (2010): virtually certain (99–100% probability), very likely (90–100% probability), likely (66–100% probability), about as likely as not (33–66% probability), unlikely (0–33% probability), very unlikely (0–10% probability), exceptionally unlikely (0–1% probability).

  33. 33.

    Evidence scale according to Mastrandrea et al. (2010): limited, medium, robust.

  34. 34.

    Agreement scale according to Mastrandrea et al. (2010): low, medium, high.

  35. 35.

    Pidgeon and Fischoff (2011).

  36. 36.

    Crutzen (2006), Heckendorn et al. (2009).

  37. 37.

    Hegerl and Solomon (2009), Leisner and Müller-Klieser (2007).

  38. 38.

    FAO (2008).

  39. 39.

    NAS (2015).

  40. 40.

    Stehr (2015a, b).

  41. 41.

    Prins and Rayner (2007).

  42. 42.

    http://www.unep.org/documents.multilingual/default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163 (2016-08-15).

  43. 43.

    Sandin (2004), Sandin et al. (2011) is aims to defend the PP but illustrates some arguments against it.

  44. 44.

    EEA (2001).

  45. 45.

    Whether there are no data available, because there are no models and measurements or “because it [the event] has not had time to show up” (Taleb et al. 2014).

  46. 46.

    Taleb (2014), Casti (2013).

  47. 47.

    Ehrlich and Ehrlich (2013), World Bank (2012).

  48. 48.

    Examples of climate change impacts taken from van der Sluijs and Turkenburg (2006): such as a regime shift in the thermohaline ocean circulation, sea level rise of several meters, loss of unique ecosystems, extinction of species, migration of environmental refugees, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, reduction of food security and changes in the distribution of diseases.

  49. 49.

    https://judithcurry.com/2015/03/30/is-climate-change-a-ruin-problem/ (2015-08-08).

  50. 50.

    Taleb et al. (2014).

  51. 51.

    Leiserowitz et al. (2016).

  52. 52.

    Kahneman (2011), Platje and Kampen (2016).

  53. 53.

    Sterman (2000), Casti (2013).

  54. 54.

    Kahneman (2011).

  55. 55.

    Giddens (2009).

  56. 56.

    Newell and Smithson (2014), Lewandowsky et al. (2014).

  57. 57.

    Sterman (2000).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz, Theodor-Körner Allee 16, 02763, Zittau, Germany

    Markus Will

  2. WSB University in Wrocław, Ul. Fabryczna 29/31, 53-609, Wroclaw, Poland

    Joost Platje

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  1. Markus Will
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  2. Joost Platje
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Correspondence to Markus Will .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. HAW Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

  2. Department of Forestry and Management, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece

    Evangelos Manolas

  3. Center for Neuroscience and Cell Biology, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal

    Anabela Marisa Azul

  4. Department of Biology & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Ulisses M. Azeiteiro

  5. Manchester Museum, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

    Henry McGhie

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Will, M., Platje, J. (2018). What’s the Worst Thing that Can Happen?—A Simple Exercise to Communicating and Reasoning About Climate Change. In: Leal Filho, W., Manolas, E., Azul, A., Azeiteiro, U., McGhie, H. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Communication: Vol. 2. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70066-3_9

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