Economic and Business Cycle of India: Evidence from ICT Sector
This paper aims to study the relationship between Indian ICT industries and GDP by applying Bayesian inference. Five yearly predominant indexes collected during 2000–2015, including Indian GDP, fixed phone usages, mobile phone distributions, Internet servers, and broadband suppliers, are analyzed by employing the Markov-switching model (MS model) and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models. In addition, the Bayesian regression model is used to investigate the ICT multiplier related to Indian economic growth. The empirical results indicate that IT sectors are becoming the major role of Indian economic expansion in the forthcoming future, compared with telecommunication sectors. Moreover, the result of the ICT multiplier confirms that high technological industrial zones should be systematically enhanced continuously, in particular, research and development in cyberspace.
KeywordsInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) Bayesian inference Markov-switching model (MS model) Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model
The authors would like to sincerely acknowledge the National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT) for the 2016 India research grant, the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) for supporting accommodations and transportation costs, and Mr. Jason Petrea for the linguistic checking.
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