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International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

SIMULTECH 2016: Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications pp 241–260Cite as

Modelling Population Dynamics Using a Hybrid Simulation Approach: Application to Healthcare

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Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 676))

Abstract

The goal of the study is presenting a population submodel developed using the system dynamics (SD) approach and discussing solutions for the integration of the SD methodology with discrete time control in formulating long-term projections for population evolution and its influence on healthcare demand. This study relies on historical demographic data and officially formulated scenarios for the most likely population projections for the Wrocław Region. The historical parameters are applied from 2002 to 2014, and projected trends are adopted for 2015 to 2035. The preliminary findings confirm the validity of using the hybrid simulation approach for a more advanced exploration of demography-dependent health policy issues.

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Acknowledgements

This Project Was Financed by the Grant Simulation Modeling of the Demand for Healthcare Services from the National Science Centre, Poland, and Was Awarded based on the Decision 2015/17/B/HS4/00306.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wrocław, Poland

    Bożena Mielczarek & Jacek Zabawa

Authors
  1. Bożena Mielczarek
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  2. Jacek Zabawa
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bożena Mielczarek .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. King Abdullah II School of Information Technology, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

    Mohammad S. Obaidat

  2. School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    Tuncer Ören

  3. Department of Modelling and Simulation, Riga Technical University, Riga, Latvia

    Yuri Merkuryev

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Mielczarek, B., Zabawa, J. (2018). Modelling Population Dynamics Using a Hybrid Simulation Approach: Application to Healthcare. In: Obaidat, M., Ören, T., Merkuryev, Y. (eds) Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications. SIMULTECH 2016. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 676. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69832-8_14

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69832-8_14

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-69831-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-69832-8

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