Abstract
Overconfidence is manifested by the overestimation or exaggeration of one’s ability to perform a particular task successfully. It may take one of three forms: (i) overestimation of one’s actual performance, (ii) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others and (iii) excessive confidence in own beliefs. People are prone to self-serving bias (also referred to as self-serving attribution bias) when they attribute positive events to their own character (internal attribution) and negative events to external factors (external attribution). Self-serving bias is common and observable in our day-to-day environment, it can be detected easily, and it feeds on financial crises as it provides a fertile ground for factors to which people can attribute their failure. Overconfidence is linked to self-serving bias.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allport, G. W. (1937). Personality: A Psychological Interpretation. New York: Holt.
Ataullaha, A., Viviana, A., & Xu, B. (2017, forthcoming). Time-Varying Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Debt Maturity Structure, European Journal of Finance.
Babcock, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1997). Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, 109–126.
Baginski, S. P., Hassell, J. M., & Hillison, W. A. (2000). Voluntary Causal Disclosures: Tendencies and Capital Market Reaction. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 15, 371–389.
Baginski, S. P., Hassell, J. M., & Kimbrough, M. D. (2004). Why Do Managers Explain their Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 42, 1–29.
Barberis, N. (2011). Psychology and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 (Working Paper, Yale School of Management).
Bazerman, M. H., Loewenstein, G., & Moore, D. A. (2002). Most Accountants aren’t Crooks—Why Good Audits Go Bad, Harvard Business School. http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/most-accountants-arent-crookswhy-good-audits-go-bad.
Bettman, J. R., & Weitz, B. A. (1983). Attributions in the Board Room: Causal Reasoning in Corporate Annual Reports. Administrative Science Quarterly, 28, 165–183.
Billett, M., & Qian, Y. (2008). Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers, Management Science, 54, 1037–1051.
Bloomfield, R. (2008). Discussion of Annual Report Readability, Current Earnings, and Earnings Persistence. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 45, 248–252.
Bonner, B. (2007). Goldman Sachs was Wrong and 2 Million Families May Lose Their Homes, 14 November. http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/goldman-sachs-3/2007/11/14/.
Burnside, C., Han, B., Hirshleifer, D., & Wang, T. Y. (2010). Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle (NBER Working Papers, No. 15866).
Chowk, G., Ramiah, V., & Moosa, I. A. (2016). Behavioural Biases of Australian Financial Planners, 23rd Annual Conference of the Multinational Finance Society, Stockholm Business School, Stockholm, 26–29 June.
Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions. Journal of Finance, 53, 1839–1885.
De Bondt, W., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Markey Overreact? Journal of Finance, 40, 793–805.
Dowd, K. (2009). Moral Hazard and the Financial Crisis. Cato Journal, 29, 141–166.
Eisenbach, T. M., & Schmalz, M. C. (2015). Anxiety, Overconfidence, and Excessive Risk-Taking (Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, No. 711).
Engel, C. (1996). The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence. Journal of Empirical Finance, 3, 123–192.
Fama, E. (1984). Forward and Spot Exchange Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 319–338.
Finke, M. S., Huston, S. J., & Winchester, D. (2011). Financial Advice: Who Pays? Financial Counseling and Planning, 22, 18–26.
Frank, J. D. (1935). Some Psychological Determinants of the Level of Aspiration. American Journal of Psychology, 47, 285–293.
Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be Overconfident. Review of Financial Studies, 14, 411–435.
Gillan, S. L., Hartzell, J. C., & Parrino, R. (2009). Explicit versus Implicit Contracts: Evidence from CEO Employment Agreements. Journal of Finance, 64, 1629–1655.
Greninger, S. A., Hampton, V. L., Kitt, K. A., & Jacquet, S. (2000). Retirement Planning Guidelines: A Delphi Study of Financial Planners and Educators. Financial Services Review, 9, 231–245.
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The Weighting of Evidence and Determinants of Confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411–435.
Hackbarth, D. (2009). Determinants of Corporate Borrowing: A Behavioral Perspective. Journal of Corporate Finance, 15, 389–411.
Hastorf, A. H., & Cantril, H. (1954). They Saw a Game: A Case Study. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 49, 129–134.
Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance. Financial Management, 31, 33–45.
Hodrick, R. (1987). The Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets. In J. Lesourne, & H. Sonnenschein (Eds.), Harwood Fundamentals of Pure and Applied Economics. New York: Harwood Academic Publishers.
Hoppe, F., & Moers, F. (2011). The Choice of Different Types of Subjectivity in CEO Annual Bonus Contracts. Accounting Review, 86, 2023–2046.
Johnson, D. D. P., & Fowler, J. H. (2011). The Evolution of Overconfidence. Nature, 477, 317–320.
Kaplan, T. R., & Ruffle, B. J. (1998). Correspondence. Journal of Economic Perspective, 12, 243–243.
Kidd, J. B. (1970). The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning. Acta Psychologica, 34, 338–347.
Kunda, Z. (1987). Motivated Inference: Self-Serving Generation and Evaluation of Causal Theories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 636–647.
Larsen, P.T. (2007). Goldman Pays the Price of Being Big, Financial Times, 13 August.
Larwood, L., & Whittaker, W. (1977). Managerial Myopia: Self-Serving Biases in Organizational Planning. Journal of Applied Psychology, 62, 194–198.
Lewis, K. (1995). Puzzles in International Financial Markets. In S. Grossman & K. Rogoff (Eds.), The Handbook of International Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Libby, R., & Rennekamp, K. (2012). Self-Serving Attribution Bias, Overconfidence, and the Issuance of Voluntary Disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research, 50, 197–231.
Lusardi, A., & Mitchell, O. S. (2007). Financial Literacy and Retirement Preparedness: Evidence and Implications for Financial Education. Business Economics, 42, 35–44.
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. Journal of Finance, 60, 2661–2700.
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89, 20–43.
McDonald, I. M. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis and Behavioural Economics. Economic Papers, 28, 249–254.
Menyah, K. (2005). International Cash Management in the 21st Century: Theory and Practice. Managerial Finance, 31, 3–17.
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-Serving Biases in the Attribution of Causality: Fact or Fiction? Psychological Bulletin, 82, 213–225.
Mitchell, O. and Utkus, S. (2003). Lessons from Behavioral Finance for Retirement Plan Design (Pension Research Council Working Paper 2003–2006).
Moore, P. G. (1977). The Manager’s Struggle with Uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 149, 129–165.
Moosa, I. A. (2016). Contemporary Issues in the Post-Crisis Regulatory Landscape. Singapore: World Scientific.
Moosa, I. A. (2017, forthcoming). Covered Interest Parity: The Untestable Hypothesis, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.
Nilton, P., & Xiao, J. J. (2016). Financial Literacy, Overconfidence and Financial Advice Seeking. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 70, 78–88.
Odean, T. (1998). Volume. Volatility, Price, and Profit When all Traders are Above Average, Journal of Finance, 53, 1887–1934.
Odean, T. (1999). Do Investors Trade Too Much? American Economic Review, 89, 1279–1298.
Ramiah, V., Zhao, Y., Graham, M., & Moosa, I. A. (2016). A Behavioural Finance Approach to Working Capital Management. European Journal of Finance, 22, 662–678.
Ramiah, V., Zhao, Y., & Moosa, I. A. (2014). Working Capital Management During the Global Financial Crisis: The Australian Experience. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 6, 332–351.
Rihab, A. B., & Lotfi, B. J. (2016). Managerial Overconfidence and Debt Decisions. Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 12, 225–241.
Roll, R. (1986). The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers. Journal of Business, 59, 197–216.
Shefrin, H. (2007). Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions that Create Value. Boston: McGraw hill.
Thomas, R., & Schwab, S. (2005). An Empirical Analysis of CEO Employment Contracts: What Do Top Executives Bargain for? Washington and Lee Law Review, 63, 231–245.
Tsamenyi, M., & Skliarova, D. (2005). International Cash Management Practices in a Russian Multinational. Managerial Finance, 3, 48–64.
Zuckerman, M. (1979). Attribution of Success and Failure Revisited, or: The Motivational Bias is Alive and Well in Attribution Theory. Journal of Personality, 47, 245–287.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Moosa, I.A., Ramiah, V. (2017). Overconfidence and Self-Serving Bias. In: The Financial Consequences of Behavioural Biases. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69389-7_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69389-7_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-69388-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-69389-7
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)