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Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management pp 19–44Cite as

Supply Chain Risk Management: Bullwhip Effect and Ripple Effect

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Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 265))

Abstract

Uncertainty is a system property characterizing the incompleteness of our knowledge about the system and the conditions of its development. Uncertainty is a polysemic term (poly – many, sema – a sign). Historically, the first terms related to uncertainty were accident, probability and possibility, which we relate to Aristotle. Up to the twentieth century, the mathematical basics of uncertainty factor description were founded on probability–frequency interpretation and are related to Pascal, Ferma, Bernoulli and Laplace. Modern probability theory is based on the research of Kolmogorov, who introduced an axiomatic definition of probability as a measure related to a system of axioms of a so-called probability space.

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  1. Professor of Supply Chain Management, Department of Business and Economics, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Berlin, Germany

    Dmitry Ivanov

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Ivanov, D. (2018). Supply Chain Risk Management: Bullwhip Effect and Ripple Effect. In: Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 265. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69305-7_2

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