Abstract
In the first round, there was clear distinction among candidates on their policy positions, with salience of issues beyond the traditional left/right and social liberal–conservative dimensions, in particular on political reform and on Europe. The pitch of these policies, whilst in some respects overshadowed by valence issues of competence and integrity, clearly delineated different visions of French society. This chapter sets out the policy positions of the five main candidates and tests the relative importance of these in voters’ decision-making, using attitudes and preferences measured in a large-scale opinion survey. It finds that, whilst traditional political dimensions were more important in voter choice, the renewal and European dimensions played a significant role as well.
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Notes
- 1.
‘Benoît Hamon en meeting à Paris: “Le parti de l’argent a trop de candidats”’, http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/19/benoit-hamon-en-meeting-a-paris-le-parti-de-l-argent-a-trop-de-candidats_5097183_4854003.html.
- 2.
‘Ecole, revenu universel, 32 heures … Ce qu’il faut retenir de Benoît Hamon dans “L’émission politique”’, http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2016/12/09/ecole-revenu-universel-32-heures-ce-qu-il-faut-retenir-de-benoit-hamon-dans-l-emission-politique_5046001_4854003.html.
- 3.
‘EU back in favor, but Brussels’ handling of economy and refugees still questioned’, http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/eu-back-in-favor-but-brussels-handling-of-economy-and-refugees-still-questioned/.
- 4.
‘International survey: Globalisation is still seen as a force for good in the world’, https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/17/international-survey/.
- 5.
‘Macron outlines plans for multi-speed Europe’, https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/macron-outlines-plans-for-multi-speed-europe/.
- 6.
See ‘L’Union Européenne, on la change ou on la quitte! L’heure du Plan B sonne en 2017!’, http://melenchon.fr/2016/06/24/lunion-europeenne-on-change-on-quitte-lheure-plan-b-sonne-2017/.
- 7.
‘Mon projet pour la France’, https://www.fillon2017.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/PROJET_FRANÇOIS_FILLON_2017.pdf.
- 8.
We limit ourselves to demographic and attitudinal variables, and do not include economic or personality variables due to limitations on the variables contained in the SCoRE survey.
- 9.
Suffice to say that reporting a series of binomial logit models is no less overwhelming in terms of parameter estimates.
- 10.
‘Présidentielle 2017: à Paris, 90% des votes pour Emmanuel Macron’, http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/07/presidentielle-2017-90-des-suffrages-pour-emmanuel-macron-a-paris_5123937_4854003.html.
- 11.
It should be noted, however, that a model run without the other attitudinal indicators still does not see the Islam variable reach as strong an effect as the other key predictors.
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Evans, J., Ivaldi, G. (2018). Parties and Voters in the Policy Space: The Presidential First Round. In: The 2017 French Presidential Elections. French Politics, Society and Culture. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68327-0_7
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