Abstract
Second-order cybernetic models let explain an influence of mass behavior upon macroeconomic characteristics. In particular, we consider situations related to the self-organization and synergy of interacting socio-economic systems and an impact of random factors. In such situations catastrophic intensity of offensive adaptive mass behavior may produce a negative impact on the economic stability. Nonlinear dynamics of self-organization processes complicates prediction of macroeconomic characteristics via extrapolation of trends. An amplitude-frequency analysis of oscillatory self-organization processes let obtain more relevant forecasts.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Cramer, J.S.: The Origins of Logistic Regression. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper. TI 2002 – 119/4 (2002)
von Foerster, H.: Cybernetics. In: Encyclopaedia of Artificial Intelligence. John Wiley and Sons (1987)
Hyötyniemi, H.: Neocybernetics in Biological Systems. Helsinki University of Technology, Department of Automation and Systems Technology, Control Engineering Laboratory, Espoo (2006)
Káptalan, E., Szabó, L., Szász, Cs., Néda, Z.: Collective behavior – a general survey. J. Comput. Sci. Control Syst. 4(1), 53–60 (2011)
Kovalev, S.M., Guda, A.N., Sukhanov, A.V.: Hybrid method of learning stochastic models of anticipating anomalies on the basis of fuzzy products. Bull. Rostov State Univ. Ways Commun. 2(62), 54–71 (2015). (in Russian)
Kovalev, S.M.: The method of multistep prediction of anomalies in temporal data: Izvestiya SFedU. Eng. Sci. 7(144), 85–91 (2013)
Moon, H., Lu, T.-C.: Network Catastrophe: self-organized patterns reveal both the instability and the structure of complex networks. Sci. Rep. 5, 9450 (2015). doi:10.1038/srep09450
Smirnov, A., Levashova, T., Shilov, N., Sandkuhl, K.: Ontology for cyber-physical-social systems self-organisation. In: Proceedings of the 16th Conference of Open Innovations Association FRUCT, IET - 2014, pp. 101–107 (2014)
Smirnov, A.V., Kashevnik, A.M., Shilov, N.G.: Cyber-physical-social system self-organization: ontology-based multi-level approach and case study. In: International Conference on Self-Adaptive and Self-Organizing Systems, SASO, IET - 2015, vol. 2015, p. 7306611 (2015)
Sokolov, B., Yusupov, R., Verzilin, D., Sokolova, I., Ignatjev, M.: Methodological basis of socio-cyber-physical systems structure-dynamics control and management. In: Chugunov, A.V., Bulgov, R., Kabanov, Y., Kampis, G., Wimmer, M. (eds.) First International Conference on Digital Transformation and Global Society, DTGS 2016, Revised Selected Papers, St. Petersburg, Russia, pp. 610–618, 22–24 June 2016
Verzilin, D.N., Mamonov, S.A., Corbunova, I.R.: Modelling coherent and self-organization behaviour of social and economic system. In: XVI International Conference on Dynamical System Modeling and Stability Investigations (DSMSI-2013), 422 p. Taras Shevchenko National University of Kiev, Ukraine, 29–31 May 2013
Verzilin, D.N., Maximova, T.G.: Models of social actors’ reaction on external impacts. St. Petersburg State Polytechnical Univ. J. Comput. Sci. Telecommun. Control Syst. 2(120), 140–145 (2011). (in Russian)
Verzilin, D.N., Potapychev, S.N., Ryzhkov, N.A.: The use of simulation to evaluate the response of social and economic systems to external influences. In: V Conference “Simulation. Theory and Practice”, IMMOD 2011, St. Petersburg, pp. 115–119, 19–21 October 2011. (in Russian)
Verzilin, D.N., Shanygin, S.I., Chereshneva, A.V.: Conceptual bases of modelling of social systems and estimation of stability of social processes. St. Petersburg State Polytechnical Univ. J. Comput. Sci. Telecommun. Control Syst. 5(133), 123–128 (2011)
Verzilin, D.N., Sokolov, B.V., Yusupov, R.M.: Neokibernetika - yesterday, today and tomorrow. In: Proceedings of the Conference on Information Technologies in Management (ITU 2014), pp. 192–201. JSC “Concern” CRI “Electrical Appliance”, St. Petersburg (2014). (in Russian)
Verzilin, D.N., Sokolov, B.V., Yusupov, R.M.: Prospects for the development Neurocybernetics. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on XIV St. Petersburg Interregional Conference Regional Informatics (RI-2014), pp. 33–34. SPOISU, St. Petersburg (2014). (in Russian)
Acknowledgments
The research described in this paper is partially supported by the Russian Humanitarian Found (grants 15-04-00400), the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 15-07-08391, 15-08-08459, 16-07-00779, 16-08-00510, 16-08-01277, 16-29-09482-ofi-i, 17-08-00797, 17-06-00108, 17-01-00139, 17-20-01214), grant 074-U01 (ITMO University), project 6.1.1 (Peter the Great St. Petersburg Politechnic University) supported by Government of Russian Federation, Program STC of Union State “Monitoring-SG” (project 1.4.1-1), state order of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation №2.3135.2017/K, state research 0073–2014–0009, 0073–2015–0007, International project ERASMUS +, Capacity building in higher education, № 73751-EPP-1-2016-1-DE-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP, Innovative teaching and learning strategies in open modeling and simulation environment for student-centered engineering education.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Sokolov, B., Verzilin, D., Maximova, T., Sokolova, I. (2018). Dynamic Models of Self-organization Through Mass Behavior in Society. In: Abraham, A., Kovalev, S., Tarassov, V., Snasel, V., Vasileva, M., Sukhanov, A. (eds) Proceedings of the Second International Scientific Conference “Intelligent Information Technologies for Industry” (IITI’17). IITI 2017. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 679. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68321-8_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68321-8_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-68320-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-68321-8
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)