A Systems Critique of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate

Abstract

This chapter presents a systems dynamics critique of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate established at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Pledges under the Agreement are currently inadequate to limit global warming to safe levels. However, it is intended to be a system that evolves over time and changes state behaviour to encourage increasingly ambitious emissions reductions from members. The Agreement is designed to increase action through a ratchet mechanism obligating countries to put forward stronger targets, political pressure and a “signal” to investors to transition towards low-carbon portfolios and activities. An analysis using causal loop diagrams finds that none of these mechanisms for change are convincing. The legal wording of the Paris Agreement means that no “ratchet mechanism” exists. Political pressure through a pledge and review process has rarely worked in other international agreements or in previous international efforts on climate change. The idea of international law sending an investment signal is tenuous at best, and existing evidence in renewable energy and fossil fuel markets suggests that the signal is currently not functioning. Moreover, the Paris Agreement has inbuilt delay, making the lock-in of emissions-intensive trajectories likely. In short, the mechanisms for change designed into the Paris Agreement are unlikely to work. The Agreement as a system for changing state behaviour in a sufficient timescale is likely to fail.