Chinese Assertive Actions in the South China Sea

Abstract

The South China Sea (SCS) has become one of the most problematic spots of international politics, and it has been mentioned as a possible trigger to a large-scale world conflict, the critical tipping point in the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region, and the place where global economy meets geopolitics. This diagnosis is the direct result of the high importance of the area for the global economy combined with the complex situation of overlapping territorial claims between six directly involved actors.

The assertive China discourse developed as a reaction to the allegedly changed behaviour of China in the period of 2009–2010. However, it is argued here that the narrative was exaggerated at the time. While the SCS is most often mentioned as the area where Chinese foreign policy indeed was supposed to become more assertive, the individual events in the SCS show only policy adjustments at most. Moreover, the Chinese actions and reactions were not entirely disproportionate when compared to the moves of the other countries. Still, China started to defend its claims more actively. Even though these claims have not been adjusted for decades, the level of activity with which China decided to impose them and also react to other countries’ moves was growing.

In the period of 2011–2016, however, China did become assertive in its behaviour. Altogether five cases of Chinese assertiveness in this period were identified: the cable-cutting incidents in 2011; the Scarborough Shoal stand-off in 2012; the Second Thomas Shoal stand-off, which has been running since 2013; the oil rig incident in 2014; and the land reclamation, construction, and militarization of the outposts taking place since 2014. These five events will be further analysed in subsequent chapters to establish their driving forces.

The upcoming chapter draws on previously published works of the author; see Turcsányi (2013a, b, c, 2016)