Abstract
The paper is devoted to a quantitative approach to support of strategic planning to control international conflicts. The MUT team, taking part in Polish-American “tabletop” games, has proposed a set of methods and tools to analyze possible moves to resolve a hypothetical conflict along a front line in northeastern Europe. Both the model and some experimental results are presented in the paper. Decision support was proposed as a set of statistical, optimization and simulation tools for conflict scenario preparation and analysis. The range of quantitative methods and the choice of appropriate research tools in the experiments are described. The strategic game was divided into two phases: D1 – escalation of the conflict in the B states – determination of effectiveness measures, such as the opponent’s estimation of the probability that the conflict will escalate (Bayesian Network Model); D2 – conventional conflict: Evaluation of effectiveness measures on our side (evaluation of force potential and structure required, simulation analysis of combat clashes). The presentation below focuses on D1.
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Najgebauer, A., Antkiewicz, R., Pierzchała, D., Rulka, J. (2018). Quantitative Methods of Strategic Planning Support: Defending the Front Line in Europe. In: Świątek, J., Borzemski, L., Wilimowska, Z. (eds) Information Systems Architecture and Technology: Proceedings of 38th International Conference on Information Systems Architecture and Technology – ISAT 2017. ISAT 2017. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 656. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67229-8_26
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67229-8_26
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