Abstract
In this work, an agent-based model for studying large-scale conflict against a central authority was developed and explored in a set of computer experiments. The model proposed herein is an extension of Epstein’s ABM of civil violence, in which new mechanisms such as deprivation-dependent hardship, vanishing of the risk perception (“massive fear loss”) below a critical ratio between deterrence and “group support,” legitimacy feedback (drop of the central authority’s legitimacy due to uprisings) and network influences were implemented. This introduction contains an overview of the motivation, scope of the work, and methodology of development. It also describes the structure of the remainder of book, which is structured in six chapters, dedicated to state-of-the-art review of social conflict theories and related concepts, discussion of Epstein’s model, analysis of conflict events and social indicators for eight African countries affected by the “Arab Spring,” description of the proposed agent-based model, computer explorations, and conclusions.
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Notes
- 1.
“Armed conflict” is defined as “a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths.” in page 1 of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook [74]. Specific forms of armed conflict are thoroughly studied in the realm of Military Sciences. Modern definitions of “insurgence” and “war” can be found in military doctrine publications, such as the AAP6—NATO GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND DEFINITIONS [54].
- 2.
- 3.
Although revolution is an extremely important topic in the study of large-scale conflict (e.g., [42, 43, 48, 52]), the present work will be centered on the stability, instability, and complexity of the patterns of confrontation of a grieved population demanding change from a government, and not on the process of overthrowing governments.
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Lemos, C.M. (2018). Introduction. In: Agent-Based Modeling of Social Conflict. SpringerBriefs in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67050-8_1
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