Abstract
This Chapter presents a review of the literature that discusses the economic impacts of civil war. This chapter identifies what it calls a ‘prominent set of studies within the civil war literature’, a body of scholarship that highlights (inter alia) the negative economic consequences of civil war violence. An often-cited dictum is discussed: The idea that ‘civil war represents development in reverse’. The critiques of this position are then presented. In particular, critics argue that the ‘development in reverse’ logic is underpinned by a liberal interpretation of war and development, an interpretation that suffers from historical amnesia. Development has often been underpinned by violence, critics argue, which continues in many parts of the world today and leads to acute suffering for millions of people.
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Notes
- 1.
It is worth noting that Thyne (2016: 167) has stated that there now exists a vast body of empirical work to support the mechanisms explaining why civil wars inhibit economic growth. However, this seems inconsistent with the observations of the relevant literature that Thyne goes on to cite in support of his claim. On the one hand, some of these studies are focused on post-civil war economic recovery as opposed to economic development during civil war (for example, Kang and Meernik 2005; Chen et al. 2008; Flores and Nooruddin 2009; Garriga and Philips 2014). On the other hand, a number of these studies bemoan the lack of research into the economic consequences of civil war. For instance, Thyne cites Murdoch and Sandler’s 2002 study; however, as noted in this chapter, Murdoch and Sandler in 2004 bemoaned the lack of research on the influence of civil wars on economic growth. Chen et al. (2008: 64) are also cited by Thyne. However, in this study, the authors mention the ‘scarce literature on the consequences of civil war’ (although they do note that most of this scarce research has focused on detailing economic costs during conflict). Kang and Meernik (2005: 89) are also cited; however, they note that ‘Much of the research on civil wars has been devoted to analyzing the onset and duration of civil wars’. Gyimah-Bremponga and Corley’s (2005: 271) analysis, another cited study, notes that studies into economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa ‘have not investigated the effects of civil war on economic growth’, adding that ‘Most empirical growth studies have focused on the effects of other variables on economic growth in Africa, using civil war incidence only as a conditioning variable, if at all’. Of course, whether one believes that there is a lot or a little of something is relative. In Thyne’s defence, the vastness of this literature would depend on one’s definition of ‘vast’ in terms of a body of literature. This book nevertheless argues that as scholarly interest in development and civil war rose during the 1990s and 2000s, investigating the economic consequences of civil war did not keep pace with investigations into the economic causes of civil war. While research into the former has increased, it is argued that there remains a lack of scholarly literature that systematically analyses the economic consequences (and the related mechanisms) of civil war, especially when compared to research into the economic causes of civil war and in light of the pervasiveness of the ‘civil war as development in reverse’ logic.
- 2.
On the whole, the results of these studies are somewhat inconsistent, as some studies find no direct link between processes of globalisation such as trade and the onset of civil war, some studies highlight that international trade is likely to stimulate economic growth (especially in conjunction with other economic processes such as FDI) and in turn argue that the resultant economic growth reduces the likelihood of civil war, and others find that economic openness does not produce civil peace (for a good summary, see Magee and Massoud 2011; for studies, see Hegre et al. 2003; Barbieri and Reuveny 2005; Bussmann and Schneider 2007; Elbadawi and Hegre 2008; Sorens and Ruger 2014).
- 3.
The CAF 2.0 document was prepared by the USAID Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation.
- 4.
For example, as Collier (1999: 178) puts it, ‘The costs of transportation increase as infrastructure and security deteriorate, and the ability to enforce contracts is reduced as the institutions of civil society are weakened, trust declines, time horizons shorten due to uncertainty, and opportunism becomes more profitable’.
- 5.
A number of the relevant studies are listed below. However, as already noted, studies in this list do not necessarily test the assumed mechanisms that are outlined in this section or necessarily provide a systematic analysis of the economic costs of civil. A number of the following studies, for example, simply list mechanisms without testing for their presence/absence in a given conflict. Nevertheless, the relevant studies include: Collier 1999, 2000; Stewart et al. 2001; FitzGerald 2001; Blomberg and Hess 2002; Murdoch and Sandler 2002a, b, 2004; Collier et al. 2003; Bayer and Rupert 2004; Gyimah-Brempong and Corley 2005; Krause and Suzuki 2005; Blanton and Apodaca 2007; Bodea and Elbadawi 2008; Chen et al. 2008; Skaperdas et al. 2009; Blattman and Miguel 2010; Gates et al. 2012; Mehlum and Moene 2012: 710; Mihalache-O’Keef and Vashchilko 2010; Collier and Duponchel 2013; Driffield et al. 2013. For policy reports see, for example, OECD 2002; Wood 2003; Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation 2005; DFID 2006; World Bank 2011; USAID 2012.
- 6.
However, as Di John (2010: 22) points out, this process of state formation in Europe was very long and slow. As such, if war gave rise to developmental outcomes, they were not always instantly revealed.
- 7.
For a discussion on the agrarian roots of contemporary conflicts, and how these roots may shape conflict dynamics , see Cramer and Richards 2011.
- 8.
There are critiques of this Keynesian logic; for an overview, see d’Agostino et al. (2012).
- 9.
Moreover, as with the costs of war, these externalities would be difficult to measure.
- 10.
- 11.
- 12.
Pugh and Cooper (2004: 9) provide the following definition of the shadow economy: ‘Economic activities that are conducted outside state-regulated frameworks and are not audited by the state institutions’.
- 13.
For example, see Reno 2000.
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Maher, D. (2018). Civil War as Development in Reverse or a Case of Historical Amnesia?. In: Civil War and Uncivil Development. Rethinking Political Violence. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66580-1_2
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