Estimation of Case Numbers at Pandemics and Testing of Hospital Resource’s Sufficiency with Simulation Modeling

Abstract

Influenza pandemics have occured throughout the past two centuries, killed millions of people worldwide. Although it is impossible to predict when/where the next pandemic will occur, proper planning is still needed to maximize efficient use of hospital resources and to minimize loss of life and productivity. Thus, it is highly important to estimate case numbers and to test hospital resources’ sufficiency to take actions about this area. One of the most common tools used to estimate case numbers in an influenza pandemic is Basic Reproduction Number $(R_{0} ).$ In this study, we estimated case numbers using different $R_{0}$ values for a possible influenza pandemic. The developed simulation model used the estimated case numbers as input parameters, for testing important healthcare resources’ sufficiency, which are non-ICU (non-intensive care unit) hospital beds, ICU (intensive care unit) hospital beds and ventilators.