Abstract
Agent-based models (ABM) can be used to represent the spatio-temporal dynamics of real world geospatial phenomena, however because of their complexity, they can be difficult to implement and validate. This study uses the invariant-variant validation approach to further model testing of a developed ABM of forest insect infestation representing spatio-temporal dynamics of the emerald ash borer (EAB). The invariant-variant method deconstructs model results to facilitate an improved understanding of the model’s sensitivity to changes in input parameters and focuses on EAB agents’ access to information. Obtained results indicate that the developed EAB agent-based model represents and maintains both process accuracy and spatial similarity.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
DeAngelis DL, Mooij WM (2005) Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes. Annu Rev. Ecol Evol Syst 36:147–168
Grimm V, Railsback SF (2005) Individual-based modeling and ecology. Princeton University Press, New Jersey
Letcher BH, Rice JA, Crowder LB, Rose KA (1996) Variability in survival of larval fish: disentangling components with a generalized individual-based model. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 53(4):787–801
Travis JM, Dytham C (1998) The evolution of dispersal in a metapopulation: a spatially explicit, individual-based model. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 265(1390):17–23
Pérez L, Dragićević S, White R (2013) Model testing and assessment: perspectives from a swarm intelligence, agent-based model of forest insect infestations. Comput Environ Urban Syst 39:121–135
Bone C, Altaweel M (2014) Modeling micro-scale ecological processes and emergent patterns of mountain pine beetle epidemics. Ecol Model 289:45–58
Anderson T, Dragićević S (2015) An agent-based modeling approach to represent infestation dynamics of the emerald ash borer beetle. Ecol Inform 30:97–109
Anderson T, Dragicevic S (2016) Geospatial pest-parasitoid agent based model for optimizing biological control of forest insect infestation. Ecol Model 337:310–329
McLane AJ, Semeniuk C, McDermid GJ, Marceau DJ (2011) The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management. Ecol Model 222(8):1544–1556
Wilensky U, Rand W (2015) An introduction to agent-based modeling: modeling natural, social, and engineered complex systems with NetLogo. MIT Press, Massachusetts
Pontius RG (2000) Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 66:1011–1016
Ligmann-Zielinska A, Sun L (2010) Applying time-dependent variance-based global sensitivity analysis to represent the dynamics of an agent-based model of land use change. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 24(12):1829–1850
Brown DG, Page S, Riolo R, Zellner M, Rand W (2005) Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19(2):153–174
Bone C, Johnson B, Nielsen-Pincus M, Sproles E, Bolte J (2014) A temporal variant-invariant validation approach for agent-based models of landscape dynamics. Trans GIS 18(2):161–182
Straw NA, Williams DT, Kulinich O, Gninenko YI (2013) Distribution, impact and rate of spread of emerald ash borer Agrilus Planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in the Moscow region of Russia. Forestry 86(5):515–522
Fahrner SJ, Lelito JP, Blaedow K, Heimpel GE, Aukema BH (2014) Factors affecting the flight capacity of tetrastichus planipennisi (hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a classical biological control agent of Agrilus Planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Environ Entomol 43(6):1603–1612
Cappaert D, McCullough DG, Poland TM, Siegert NW (2005) Emerald ash borer in North America: a research and regulatory challenge. Am Entomol 51(3):152–165
Lyons DB, Jones GC (2005) The biology and phenology of the emerald ash borer. In: Proceedings, 16th US Department of Agriculture interagency research forum on gypsy moth and other invasive species, pp 62–63
McCullough DG, Poland TM, Anulewicz AC, Cullough DGMC (2009) Emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) attraction to stressed or baited ash trees. Environ Entomol 38(6):1668–1679
Rebek EJ, Herms DA, Smitley DR (2008) Interspecific variation in resistance to emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) among north American and Asian ash (Fraxinus spp.) Environ Entomol 37(1):242–246
Mercader RJ, Siegert NW, Liebhold AM, McCullough DG (2011) Influence of foraging behavior and host spatial distribution on the localized spread of the emerald ash borer, Agrilus Planipennis. Popul Ecol 53(2):271–285
Taylor RA, Poland TM, Bauer LS, Windell KN, Kautz JL (2007) Emerald ash borer flight estimates revised. In: Proceedings of the emerald ash borer/Asian longhorned beetle research and technology. FHTET-2007-04, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, Morgantown, West Virginia
Siegert NW, McCullough DG, Liebhold AM, Telewski FW (2008) Dendrochronological reconstruction of the establishment and spread of emerald ash borer. In: Mastro V, Lance D, Reardon R, Parra G (eds). In: Proceedings, the emerald ash borer and asian longhorned beetle research and technology development meeting. Morgantown, West Virginia
Barlow LA, Cecile J, Bauch CT, Anand M (2014) Modelling interactions between forest pest invasions and human decisions regarding firewood transport restrictions. PLoS One 9(4):e90511
Muirhead JR, Leung B, Overdijk C, Kelly DW, Nandakumar K, Marchant KR, MacIsaac HJ (2006) Modelling local and long-distance dispersal of invasive emerald ash borer Agrilus Planipennis (Coleoptera) in North America. Divers Distrib 12(1):71–79
With KA (2002) The landscape ecology of invasive spread. Conserv Biol 16(5):1192–1203
Rutledge CE, Keena MA (2012) Mating frequency and fecundity in the emerald ash borer Agrilus Planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Ann Entomol Soc Am 105(1):66–72
Jennings DE, Taylor PB, Duan JJ (2014) The mating and oviposition behavior of the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus Planipennis), with reference to the influence of host tree condition. J Pest Sci 87(1):71–78
Duan JJ, Ulyshen MD, Bauer LS, Gould J, Van Driesche R (2010) Measuring the impact of biotic factors on populations of immature emerald ash borers (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Environ Entomol 39(5):1513–1522
MacFarlane DW, Meyer SP (2005) Characteristics and distribution of potential ash tree hosts for emerald ash borer. For Ecol Manag 213(1):15–24
BenDor TK, Metcalf SS, Fontenot LE, Sangunett B, Hannon B (2006) Modeling the spread of the emerald ash borer. Ecol Model 197(1–2):221–236
Acknowledgments
This study was fully funded by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Canadian Graduate Scholarship-Doctoral (CGS D) awarded to the first author and Discovery Grant awarded to the second author. The datasets were provided by the Town of Oakville, Canada. The authors are thankful to Compute Canada WestGrid high-performance computing facility for enabling model simulations.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Anderson, T., Dragićević, S. (2018). Deconstructing Geospatial Agent-Based Model: Sensitivity Analysis of Forest Insect Infestation Model. In: Perez, L., Kim, EK., Sengupta, R. (eds) Agent-Based Models and Complexity Science in the Age of Geospatial Big Data. Advances in Geographic Information Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65993-0_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65993-0_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-65992-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-65993-0
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)