Abstract
We demonstrate the use of extended pairwise comparisons for estimating the relative likelihood that a vessel approaching US waters contains a nuclear threat. We demonstrate an expert judgment based method consisting of a designed set of extended pairwise comparisons and parameter estimation for a predictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are based on a proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The model and parameter estimates obtained are used to demonstrate the type of predictions that can be obtained.
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Acknowledgments
Developed partially under grants from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office under Grant Award Number 2008-DN-077 ARI001-02 and the National Science Foundation (CBET-0735735). The work was done at Virginia Commonwealth University. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the National Science Foundation. This research has been deemed to be exempt from federal regulations on treatment of human subjects, under approval VCU IRB #: HM11880.
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Merrick, J.R.W., Albert, L.A. (2018). Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US. In: Dias, L., Morton, A., Quigley, J. (eds) Elicitation. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 261. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19
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