Abstract
This chapter reviews the use of mathematical and computational models to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. First, we introduce general epidemiological models, and describe their use with respect to epidemiological dynamics of a single strain and of multiple strains of M. tuberculosis. In particular, we discuss multi-strain models that include drug sensitivity and drug resistance. Second, we describe models for the evolution of M. tuberculosis within and between hosts, and how the resulting diversity of strains can be assessed by considering the evolutionary relationships among different strains. Third, we discuss developments in integrating evolutionary and epidemiological models to analyse M. tuberculosis genetic sequencing data. We conclude the chapter with a discussion of the practical implications of modelling – particularly modelling strain diversity – for controlling the spread of tuberculosis, and future directions for research in this area.
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Notes
- 1.
Statistical consistency of a phylogenetic method means that when given infinitely long genetic sequences, the method –employing the model under which the sequences evolved– will recover the true underlying phylogeny.
- 2.
BEAST2 started out as a re-design of BEAST1, but over the course of time the two platforms continued to evolve independently with new features being implemented in both.
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Pečerska, J., Wood, J., Tanaka, M.M., Stadler, T. (2017). Mathematical Models for the Epidemiology and Evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis . In: Gagneux, S. (eds) Strain Variation in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex: Its Role in Biology, Epidemiology and Control. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology, vol 1019. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64371-7_15
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