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Reliability Analysis of Complex Multi-state System with Common Cause Failure Based on DS Evidence Theory and Bayesian Network

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Recent Advances in Multi-state Systems Reliability

Part of the book series: Springer Series in Reliability Engineering ((RELIABILITY))

Abstract

With the increasing complexity and larger size of modern advanced engineering systems, the traditional reliability theory cannot characterize and quantify the complex characteristics of complex systems, such as multi-state properties, epistemic uncertainties, common cause failures (CCFs), etc. This chapter focuses on the reliability analysis of complex multi-state system (MSS) with epistemic uncertainty and CCFs. Based on the Bayesian network (BN) method for reliability analysis of MSS, the DS evidence theory is used to express the epistemic uncertainty in system through the state space reconstruction of MSS. An uncertain state, which used to express the epistemic uncertainty is introduced in the new state space. The integration of evidence theory with BN is achieved by updating the conditional probability tables. When the multiple CCF groups (CCFGs) are considered in complex redundant systems, a modified factor parametric model is introduced to model the CCF in systems. An evidence theory based BN method is proposed for the reliability analysis and evaluation of complex MSSs in this chapter. The reliability analysis of servo feeding control system for CNC heavy-duty horizontal lathes (HDHLs) by this proposed method has shown that the presented method has high computational efficiency and strong practical value.

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Acknowledgements

This research was partially supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project of China under the contract number 2013ZX04013-011, and the Open Project of Traction Power State Key Laboratory of Southwest Jiaotong University under the contract number TPL 1410.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for System Reliability and Safety, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, P. R. China

    Jinhua Mi, Yan-Feng Li, Weiwen Peng & Hong-Zhong Huang

Authors
  1. Jinhua Mi
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  2. Yan-Feng Li
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  3. Weiwen Peng
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  4. Hong-Zhong Huang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hong-Zhong Huang .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Planning, Development and Technology Division, The System Reliability Department, Israel Electric Corporation Ltd., Haifa, Israel

    Anatoly Lisnianski

  2. Center for Reliability and Risk Management, Industrial Engineering and Management Department, SCE—Shamoon College of Engineering, Beer Sheva, Israel

    Ilia Frenkel

  3. Department of Mathematics, University of the Aegean, Karlovasi, Samos, Greece

    Alex Karagrigoriou

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Mi, J., Li, YF., Peng, W., Huang, HZ. (2018). Reliability Analysis of Complex Multi-state System with Common Cause Failure Based on DS Evidence Theory and Bayesian Network. In: Lisnianski, A., Frenkel, I., Karagrigoriou, A. (eds) Recent Advances in Multi-state Systems Reliability. Springer Series in Reliability Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63423-4_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63423-4_2

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-63422-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-63423-4

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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