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Abe Cabinet and the TPP Negotiations on “Trade Sensitivities”

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Abstract

One of the biggest policy achievements in the area of trade and economy for the second Abe Shinzō cabinet was the conclusion and ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2016, in spite of strong domestic opposition. The chapter analyzes the negotiation process on agricultural products, giving special attention to institutional tools introduced by administrative reform of 2001, which were employed by Prime Minister Abe in order to shape the decision-making process on the TPP. The main argument is that it was precisely those tools that enabled Abe to establish control over the policy process on TPP, coordinate conflicting interests of various domestic actors, and to reach the final compromise. Moreover, taken from the perspective of neoclassical realism, the case study of the TPP certifies to the importance of intervening factors of domestic politics, which accounted for the final outcome of the TPP policy. Furthermore, the TPP was used by Abe and other officials, as well as big business, as a chance to reform the problem of agriculture which politically had been untouchable for decades.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The system was proposed by the DPJ in the electoral manifesto for the 2009 Lower House election, which partially might have contributed to the party’s success in agricultural districts (Moriguchi 2013). Many farmers were dissatisfied at that time with the program introduced by the LDP, which compensated only big farms.

  2. 2.

    Ozawa has strongly advocated trade liberalization policy since the early 1990s, explicated in his widely read and translated into English book, Blueprint for a New Japan (Ozawa 1994: 122–127).

  3. 3.

    For the TPP to come to effect, at least six countries accounting 85% of GDP have to ratify it within two years from signing the agreement. Due to the scale of GDP, the ratification by the United States and Japan is necessary for the agreement.

  4. 4.

    The DPJ made references to trade liberalization policy much earlier, already in their manifesto of 2007.

  5. 5.

    The policy included also a statement about the establishment of the Headquarters for the Promotion of Agriculture Structural Reforms (Nōgyō Kōzō Kaikaku Sokushin Honbu). The Headquarters, presided by the prime minister and vice-chaired by the minister of state for national policy and agriculture minister, was to prepare a proposal by June 2011, and an Action Plan by October 2011.

  6. 6.

    Mulgan (2015a: 128–129) makes a list of business and agricultural organizations who declared their stance on the TPP, dividing them into supporting, opposing, and cautious.

  7. 7.

    Suga shared this idea with his “teacher,” Kajiyama Seiroku, who served as CCS under the Hashimoto administration (Matsuda 2016: 261–262).

  8. 8.

    What is even more interesting, Nishikawa was fully aware of this strategy. Nishikawa (2017) discussed it in his book TPP Shinjitsu [Truth about the TPP], which caused much controversy in the Diet in April 2016, leading to the postponing of deliberations on the TPP bills to the next extraordinary session. Nishikawa uses the exact term that Abe was trying to control zoku parliamentarians by zoku parliamentarians.

  9. 9.

    It was during the negotiations in Singapore in February 2014, during which Nishikawa met informally with the Australian Minister for Trade and Investment, Andrew Lobb, and prepared the ground for the agreement on beef and automobile parts (Ōtsu 2014: 4).

  10. 10.

    It is a system regulating the rice production output in order to keep the price of rice. Farmers switching to other crops are subsidized by the state.

  11. 11.

    Abe also gave up the idea of holding general election for both houses due to the Kumamoto earthquake.

  12. 12.

    LDP won also seats in local and other elections. In April 27, 2014, in the by-election to Lower House from one of the districts of Kagoshima, which is a agriculture-based prefecture known for pork and sugar cane, the LDP-backed candidate won. It was interpreted as a sign of support for the Abe cabinet (Asahi Shinbun 2014f, April 28).

  13. 13.

    Yomiuri Shinbun published results of opinion polls before election to the Upper House separately for all major prefectures. The highest percentage of voters who mentioned the TPP as important policy was in Yamagata Prefecture and reached only 4%. In Akita it was 3%, and in Niigata 2% (Yomiuri Shinbun 2016c, June 25a). There were differences of opinion depending on profession, and, as expected, substantially more farmers expressed interests in the TPP although they did not constitute a majority. In Kumamoto Prefecture, for instance, over 20% expressed interest in the TPP (Yomiuri Shinbun 2016d, June 25b).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of International and Political Studies, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

    Karol Zakowski & Marcin Socha

  2. Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland

    Beata Bochorodycz (Chair of Oriental Studies)

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Zakowski, K., Bochorodycz, B., Socha, M. (2018). Abe Cabinet and the TPP Negotiations on “Trade Sensitivities”. In: Japan’s Foreign Policy Making. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63094-6_11

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