Impact of Temporal Features of Cattle Exchanges on the Size and Speed of Epidemic Outbreaks
Databases recording cattle exchanges offer unique opportunities for a better understanding and fighting of disease spreading. Most studies model contacts with (sequences of) networks, but this approach neglects important dynamical features of exchanges, that are known to play a key role in spreading. We use here a fully dynamic modeling of contacts and empirically compare the spreading outbreaks obtained with it to the ones obtained with network approaches. We show that neglecting time information leads to significant over-estimates of actual sizes of spreading cascades, and that these sizes are much more heterogeneous than generally assumed. Our approach also makes it possible to study the speed of spreading, and we show that the observed speeds vary greatly, even for a same cascade size.
This work is funded in part by the European Commission H2020 FETPROACT 2016–2017 program under grant 732942 (ODYCCEUS), by the ANR (French National Agency of Research) under grants ANR-15-CE38-0001 (AlgoDiv) and ANR-13-CORD-0017-01 (CODDDE), by the French program “PIA - Usages, services et contenus innovants” under grant O18062-44430 (REQUEST), and by the Ile-de-France program FUI21 under grant 16010629 (iTRAC).
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