Abstract
This chapter determines the role of business confidence on economic growth by applying the counterfactual analysis. In addition, what would have happened to South African economic growth following positive the US and China economic growth shocks in the presence and absence of the business confidence channel. The chapter further examines the role of exchange rate volatility and economic policy uncertainty in the transmission of negative business confidence shocks to GDP growth, consumption expenditure growth and exports growth. Evidence shows growth in GDP, consumption and exports growth decline much more in the absence of exchange rate volatility following a negative business confidence shock than when volatility is shutoff in the model. In addition, evidence shows that South African GDP growth and consumption expenditure decline more due to negative business confidence shock in the presence of elevated economic policy uncertainty. The results suggest that business confidence plays an integral part in propagating or amplifying the positive growth spillovers from the US and China into South African GDP growth. At the same time, evidence shows that shutting off the effects of confidence to external growth shocks results in trajectories of economic growth that are dampened compared to when confidence is not purged.
References
Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Barsky, R. B., & Sims, E. R. (2009). News Shocks. Working Paper 15312.
Barsky, R. B., & Sims, E. R. (2012). Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1343–1377.
Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85–106.
Blanchard, O. J. (1993). Consumption and the Recession of 1990-1991. American Economic Review, American Economic Association, 83(2), 270–274.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & David, W. (1994). Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why? The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397–1408.
Hlatshwayo, S., & Saxegaard, M. (2016). The Consequence of Policy Uncertainty: Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship. IMF Working Paper WP/16/113.
Howrey, E. (2001). The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 32(1), 175–216.
Matsusaka, J. G., & Sbordonne, A. M. (1995). Consumer confidence and economic fluctuations. Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296–318.
Nieuwerburgh, Van, & Sand Veldkamp, L. (2006). Learning asymmetries in real business cycles. Journal of monetary economics, 53(4), 753–772.
Silvia, J., & Iqbal, A. (2011). Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and confidence. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(4), 22–35.
Sum, V., Chorlian, J., & Lin, J. (2013). The effect of the demand side’s confidence on the supply side’s confidence: the mediating role of financial stress. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 10(4). open-access.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ndou, E., Gumata, N., Ncube, M. (2017). Business Confidence Shocks and the Relevance of Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Channels. In: Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62280-4_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62280-4_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-62279-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-62280-4
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)