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A Network-Oriented Modeling Approach to Voting Behavior During the 2016 US Presidential Election

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Trends in Cyber-Physical Multi-Agent Systems. The PAAMS Collection - 15th International Conference, PAAMS 2017 (PAAMS 2017)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 619))

Abstract

In this paper a network-oriented computational model is presented for voting intentions over time specifically for the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. The focus was on the role of social and mass communication media and the statements made by Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton during their speeches. The aim was to investigate the influence on the voting intentions and the final voting. Sentiment analysis was performed to check whether the statements were high or low in language intensity. Simulation experiments using parameter tuning were compared to real world data (3 election polls until the 8th of November).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    https://www.lifezette.com/polizette/milwaukee-trump-jumps-10-points-black-voters/.

  2. 2.

    http://www.danielsoper.com/sentimentanalysis/.

  3. 3.

    https://nl.mathworks.com/help/optim/ug/optimtool.html.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Behavioural Informatics Group, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Linford Goedschalk, Jan Treur & Roos Verwolf

Authors
  1. Linford Goedschalk
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  2. Jan Treur
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  3. Roos Verwolf
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan Treur .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Informática y Automática, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain

    Fernando De la Prieta

  2. GECAD Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Zita Vale

  3. Department of Informática, Universidade de Lisboa Faculdade de Ciências, Lisboa, Portugal

    Luis Antunes

  4. Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Informática y Automática, Salamanca, Spain

    Tiago Pinto

  5. School of Computer Science, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA

    Andrew T. Campbell

  6. Departamento de Sistemas Informáticos y Computación, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain

    Vicente Julián

  7. University of Aveiro, Institute of Electronics and Telematics Engineering, Aveiro, Portugal

    Antonio J.R. Neves

  8. Departamento de Informática y Automática, Facultad de Ciencias, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain

    María N. Moreno

Appendix

Appendix

Polls by McClatchy-Marist

First poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/320225575/McClatchy-Marist-Poll-National-Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables-August-2016

Second poll: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article103597232.ece/BINARY/The\%20full\\%20McClatchy-Marist\%20poll

Third poll: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635043.ece/BINARY/Full\%20poll\\%20results

Transcripts of Donald Trump

June 22nd: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/transcript-trump-speech-on-the-stakes-of-the-election-224654

July 21st: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/full-transcript-donald-trump-nomination-acceptance-speech-at-rnc-225974

July 27th: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/27/donald-trumps-falsehood-laden-press-conference-annotated

August 18th: www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/18/watch_live_donald_trump_gives_first_campaign_speech_since_hiring_stephen_bannon.html

August 31st: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-donald-trump-immigration-speech-transcript-20160831-snap-htmlstory.html

September 15th: http://time.com/4495507/donald-trump-economy-speech-transcript/

October 2nd: http://thoughtsonthedead.com/transcript-of-donald-j-trumps-speech-in-manheim-pa-10116/

October 13th: http://www.npr.org/2016/10/13/497857068/transcript-donald-trumps-speech-responding-to-assault-accusations

October 22nd: http://www.whatthefolly.com/2016/10/26/transcript-donald-trumps-speech-in-gettysburg-pennsylvania-part-1/

Transcripts of Hillary Clinton

June 7th: http://bluenationreview.com/full-transcript-of-hillary-clintons-june-7-victory-speech/

July 18th: http://fortune.com/2016/07/18/hillary-clinton-speech-naacp-transcript/

July 28th: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/29/us/politics/hillary-clinton-dnc-transcript.html?_r=0

August 11th: http://europe.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-full-transcript-economic-speech-489602?rm=eu

August 25th: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/transcript-hillary-clinton-alt-right-reno-227419

September 15th: http://www.whatthefolly.com/2016/09/15/transcript-hillary-clintons-speech-in-greensboro-north-carolina-part-1/

October 3rd: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=119154

October 11th: http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/10/11/hillary-clintons-speech-at-ohio-state.html

October 26th: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=119693

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Goedschalk, L., Treur, J., Verwolf, R. (2018). A Network-Oriented Modeling Approach to Voting Behavior During the 2016 US Presidential Election. In: De la Prieta, F., et al. Trends in Cyber-Physical Multi-Agent Systems. The PAAMS Collection - 15th International Conference, PAAMS 2017. PAAMS 2017. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 619. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61578-3_1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61578-3_1

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-61577-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-61578-3

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